APPAppLovin Corporation
This is the year AppLovin has to prove it’s not just a flash in the pan — the AXON e-commerce integration on 2026-09-23 is the first real test, with a bull target of $446.07 and a bear fallback of $398.95, leaning 52% toward the upside. If it passes that, the next step is Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-11-04, where the stock could rally to $664.18 or fall to $588.19, with a 51% chance of the bull path. The company needs to show it’s not just surviving the AI disruption but actually evolving its core ad-tech stack to stay relevant in a world where software is eating everything.
The schedule
- Wed4Nov
The Q3 2026 earnings release will provide investors with critical insights into the company's performance for the third quarter of 2026, along with its outlook for the full fiscal year of 2027. This event is expected to have a significant impact on the stock price, as it will offer a clear picture of the company's financial health, operational performance, and strategic direction. The market will closely watch the earnings report and any guidance provided, which could influence investor sentiment and trading activity in the weeks following the release. The stock is projected to trade between $285 and $350 in the short term, with a base price of $313.58 and a bull probability of 50%.
- Tue9Feb
- Wed5May
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $346.80 at outcome
AppLovin reported an EPS actual of 3.57, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 17.0% from the event date to the outcome date. The bearish sentiment was driven by a Bank of America downgrade, which questioned the company's ability to sustain its revenue growth, and broader concerns about execution risks and challenges in transitioning to e-commerce and AI-driven monetization.
AppLovin reported an EPS actual of 3.57, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 17.0% from the event date to the outcome date. The bearish sentiment was driven by a Bank of America downgrade, which questioned the company's ability to sustain its revenue growth, and broader concerns about execution risks and challenges in transitioning to e-commerce and AI-driven monetization.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $381.20 at outcome
AppLovin's performance was caught between the materialization of a $74 million insider sale by Director Eduardo Vivas and continued fundamental strength in its Axon-powered ad platform. While the stock faced downward pressure from valuation concerns and the large insider exit, the impact was mitigated by reports of 70% revenue growth in 2025 and the strategic expansion of its AI tools into the e-commerce sector.
AppLovin's performance was caught between the materialization of a $74 million insider sale by Director Eduardo Vivas and continued fundamental strength in its Axon-powered ad platform. While the stock faced downward pressure from valuation concerns and the large insider exit, the impact was mitigated by reports of 70% revenue growth in 2025 and the strategic expansion of its AI tools into the e-commerce sector.
- Wed11Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $404.39 at outcome
AppLovin delivered a fundamental beat-and-raise quarter, exceeding expectations on both revenue ($1.66B vs $1.61B est.) and EPS, while posting staggering 84% adjusted EBITDA margins. However, the stock plunged immediately and collapsed well below the bear floor, driven by broader market fears regarding the 'AI will replace software' narrative and investor disappointment over guidance that implied decelerating growth in Q1. The high valuation meant strong execution was rejected by the market in favor of sector-wide pessimism.
AppLovin delivered a fundamental beat-and-raise quarter, exceeding expectations on both revenue ($1.66B vs $1.61B est.) and EPS, while posting staggering 84% adjusted EBITDA margins. However, the stock plunged immediately and collapsed well below the bear floor, driven by broader market fears regarding the 'AI will replace software' narrative and investor disappointment over guidance that implied decelerating growth in Q1. The high valuation meant strong execution was rejected by the market in favor of sector-wide pessimism.
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