ALRMAlarm.com Holdings, Inc.
Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. (ALRM) sells integrated home and commercial security systems, including video surveillance, fire detection, and emergency response services. The company’s next catalyst is Sep 22, 2026 — Fall Competitor Hardware & S, which will test its ability to counter competitive pricing pressure and defend its market share in the security hardware space. The event will likely focus on the company’s response to falling prices from rivals, particularly in the commercial fire monitoring segment.
- Revenue hit $1.05B in 2026, up 7.6% YoY, with a net margin of 4.7%
- Free cash flow reached $274.57M in the trailing twelve months
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.13x suggests a relatively conservative capital structure
The Read
com’s stock has historically fallen on earnings beats when guidance or SaaS retention raised concerns, but rallied strongly on strategic diversification and product launches that countered competitor pricing pressure.
The schedule
- Thu5Nov
This earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain growth in a competitive SaaS market, with a focus on product mix and cash flow generation. The outcome will be critical for validating the recent EPS surprise and guiding future revenue expectations.
- Wed6Jan
This event will test the company's innovation pipeline and its ability to capture market share in the rapidly evolving smart home automation space.
- Tue9Feb
This earnings report will test the company's ability to deliver consistent performance and meet or exceed guidance, which is critical for maintaining investor confidence.
- Thu6May
This earnings report will test the company's ability to sustain growth and deliver on its long-term strategic goals, particularly in a challenging macroeconomic environment.
- Thu5Aug
This earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain momentum and deliver on its growth targets, which is essential for long-term value creation.
- Fri6Aug
This event will test the company's ability to communicate its strategic vision and address investor concerns, which is critical for maintaining market confidence.
Past
- Tue22Sep
This event will test the company's positioning against hardware competitors and its ability to defend market share through software differentiation.
- Tue22Sep
This news event will test the market's perception of the company's strategic direction and its ability to navigate macroeconomic uncertainty.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $55.79 at outcome
Alarm.com Holdings (ALRM) beat earnings estimates with an EPS of $0.49 versus the estimate of $0.49, and the company raised its full-year revenue and profitability outlook. The positive guidance and growth in SaaS and license business, along with commercial video operations and EnergyHub utility programs, drove the stock higher, surpassing the bull target of $47.00.
- Thu25Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $49.69 at outcome
Alarm.com shares rallied past the bull target, driven by the launch of its new premium indoor Wi-Fi camera (ADC-V530) featuring a physical privacy shutter and color night vision. The introduction of this upgraded device at a lower price point than the previous generation helped alleviate concerns over competitor pricing promos and macro pressures, sparking a 10.1% surge in the stock on high trading volume.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Bear · $44.04 at outcome
While Alarm.com delivered a Q1 earnings beat and raised its SaaS and license revenue guidance, the stock ultimately fell below the bear floor. The sell-off reflects that the headline numbers were insufficient to overcome lingering market concerns regarding core SaaS retention metrics and hardware margins in the face of competitor pricing pressure.
- Sun1Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $42.65 at outcome
Alarm.com reported a Q4 earnings and revenue beat ($0.72 EPS vs. $0.66 expected) and provided a solid financial outlook, which helped the stock recover from a brief analyst-driven dip. Strategic growth initiatives, including a partnership between its EnergyHub subsidiary and Rivian and new gunshot detection innovations, demonstrated successful diversification into high-growth segments like EV charging and specialized safety, pushing the price significantly above the $42.10 bull target.
- Thu19Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $45.47 at outcome
Despite a Q4 earnings beat of $0.72 per share, the stock fell below the bear floor after JPMorgan downgraded the company to Underweight and slashed its price target to $40.00. The market's negative reaction was driven by concerns over 2026 guidance and slowing growth in core SaaS metrics, which outweighed the headline financial results.
