AMZNAmazon.com, Inc.
Amazon.com, Inc. sells everything from groceries to cloud computing, dominating the broadline retail and tech sectors. The next catalyst is Oct 30, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release & Holiday / AI Capex Guidance. The event will test AWS growth and retail margin performance, with Scouter modeling bull and bear paths into the report. Past catalysts are scored in The Read.
- Public fact: Free cash flow (TTM) of $132.87B
- Scouter has modeled bull and bear paths into the next catalyst
- Past catalysts are scored in The Read
The Read
8% move on its updates, driven by mixed AWS growth and retail margin performance in one case, and strong AWS and North America growth offsetting AI capex costs in another.
The schedule
- Fri30Oct
Q3 2026 earnings report, detailing AWS margin stability and early Q4 holiday consumer demand signals amid heightened AI investments.
- Sun29Nov
Early reads on consumer spending strength during the peak Black Friday and Cyber Monday promotional period under President Trump's economic policies.
- Thu4Feb
Q4 2026 earnings release, presenting a critical test of holiday retail execution and 2027 AWS infrastructure spending plans.
- Thu6May
Q1 2027 earnings print, focusing on post-holiday retail margin stabilization and the continued acceleration of generative AI workloads on AWS.
- Fri30Jul
Q2 2027 earnings release paired with initial insights into the July Prime Day performance and its impact on retail segment profitability.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $248.27 at outcome
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $248.27 at outcome
Amazon's updates on AWS AI products, focusing on Bedrock and custom silicon adoption among enterprise clients.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $262.07 at outcome
Amazon revealed plans to overhaul its Indiana data center campus to support AGI team's frontier model efforts, reflecting significant capital expenditure increases to $220 billion. The move underscores Amazon's commitment to AI infrastructure despite recent job cuts, signaling long-term strategic investment in high-margin AI capabilities. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-07 (~7.2σ vs typical 1d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). Confidence 90%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed.
Amazon revealed plans to overhaul its Indiana data center campus to support AGI team's frontier model efforts, reflecting significant capital expenditure increases to $220 billion. The move underscores Amazon's commitment to AI infrastructure despite recent job cuts, signaling long-term strategic investment in high-margin AI capabilities. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-07 (~7.2σ vs typical 1d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). Confidence 90%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target evaluation date 2026-08-10 (not yet reached as of 2026-08-07). [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-24: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~7.2σ). Target date 2026-08-10 reached; move through 2026-08-24 observed.
- Fri31Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $278.09 at outcome
Amazon delivered a blockbuster Q2 report, meeting EPS expectations of $2.82 while posting its strongest growth in five years, driven by breakout results in AWS and 16% growth in its North America segment. Despite a massive swing to negative free cash flow due to heavy AI infrastructure spending, operating cash flow surged 33% year-over-year. Accelerating AWS growth and early AI monetization proved to investors that the massive capital expenditures are justified, driving the stock well past the bull target.
Amazon delivered a blockbuster Q2 report, meeting EPS expectations of $2.82 while posting its strongest growth in five years, driven by breakout results in AWS and 16% growth in its North America segment. Despite a massive swing to negative free cash flow due to heavy AI infrastructure spending, operating cash flow surged 33% year-over-year. Accelerating AWS growth and early AI monetization proved to investors that the massive capital expenditures are justified, driving the stock well past the bull target.
- Thu29Jan
Actual outcome: Bear · $213.50 at outcome
Amazon's Q4 results and Q1 guidance fundamentally disappointed investors, failing to meet expectations for key growth drivers. AWS revenue growth did not re-accelerate toward the 20% target, and margin expansion in the North America retail segment was weaker than anticipated. This failure to deliver on the core bull case catalysts led to a significant downward revision in future earnings estimates, resulting in a sharp post-earnings sell-off that drove the stock well below the bear floor.
Amazon's Q4 results and Q1 guidance fundamentally disappointed investors, failing to meet expectations for key growth drivers. AWS revenue growth did not re-accelerate toward the 20% target, and margin expansion in the North America retail segment was weaker than anticipated. This failure to deliver on the core bull case catalysts led to a significant downward revision in future earnings estimates, resulting in a sharp post-earnings sell-off that drove the stock well below the bear floor.
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