UPSUnited Parcel Service, Inc.
UPS sells logistics and delivery services, including air, ground, and ocean freight, with a focus on healthcare, e-commerce, and supply chain solutions. The next catalyst is Nov 18, 2026 — Executive Trade Policy & Cross-Border Friction Risk, which will test the company’s exposure to global trade tensions and regulatory headwinds.
- UPS operates in a highly competitive global logistics space, with significant exposure to cross-border trade and regulatory shifts.
- The company’s recent $48 million investment in temperature-controlled facilities underscores its bet on healthcare logistics growth.
- Free cash flow remains robust at $5.40B TTM, but revenue growth has slowed to -2.6% YoY, signaling pressure on top-line expansion.
The Read
UPS historically saw a median absolute move of about 5%.
The schedule
- Wed18Nov
With President Trump in office, the potential implementation of new international trade tariffs represents a severe macro risk for the integrated freight and logistics sector.
- Wed3Feb
The pre-holiday quarter will reveal whether the company's aggressive restructuring and shift toward higher-margin SMB deliveries are yielding structural EBITDA improvements.
- Thu29Apr
Q1 will serve as a bellwether for domestic logistics demand recovery as the interest rate easing cycle works through the industrial economy.
- Wed5May
The crucial holiday quarter results and initial 2027 full-year free cash flow guidance will reset the fundamental valuation framework for the year ahead.
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $95.80 at outcome
UPS typically announces its holiday peak surcharges in September, testing its pricing power against mounting consumer discretionary spending pressure.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $105.54 at outcome
UPS reported Q2 2026 EPS of $1.02, exactly in line with analyst estimates, alongside a 7.6% year-over-year revenue increase. The stock saw a muted reaction, falling just 2.0% by the outcome date, as investors balanced the company's $3 billion network savings target and margin improvements against ongoing macro headwinds and weaker package volumes.
UPS faces a challenging macro environment as trade policy under President Trump and crude oil volatility pressure global freight volumes.
- Thu30Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $100.78 at outcome
UPS delivered mixed Q1 results, topping revenue and adjusted earnings estimates while reporting continued weakness in its US package volumes. Despite the headline beats, management opted to leave its full-year outlook unchanged, which investors viewed as cautious. This combination of better-than-expected current financials offset by soft domestic demand and tepid guidance resulted in a muted price reaction, leaving the stock flat.
- Thu5Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $95.86 at outcome
UPS reported Q4 2025 EPS of $2.11, exactly matching consensus estimates, but the stock experienced a steep 17.8% decline in the weeks following the release. The sell-off was driven by a negative reset in investor sentiment, as concerns over forward guidance, margin pressures, and broader shipping volume trends overshadowed the in-line headline results. This pessimistic outlook pushed the stock well below the bear floor.
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