NOCNorthrop Grumman Corporation
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) is a leading aerospace and defense contractor that designs, builds, and operates advanced military and commercial systems, including satellites, aircraft, and missile defense technologies. The next catalyst is Oct 20, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to maintain margins amid rising costs and deliver on its backlog-driven growth narrative.
- Revenue reached $41.53B in 2026, with a net margin of 10.2% and free cash flow of -$3.29B over the trailing twelve months.
- Debt-to-equity stands at 1.00x, and shareholders’ equity is $16.67B.
- Revenue growth slowed to 2.2% YoY, reflecting softness in some defense programs and the impact of cost pressures.
The Read
Northrop Grumman’s stock has historically shown muted or mixed reactions when meeting earnings estimates amid strong backlogs and rising demand but faced selling pressure when margin compression from cost pressures on specific programs outweighed positive guidance.
The schedule
- Tue20Oct
- Tue19Jan
- Tue20Apr
- Tue20Jul
Past
- Tue21Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $542.24 at outcome
Northrop Grumman met Q2 EPS estimates and reported a record $105 billion backlog alongside raised 2026 guidance, but faced notable margin compression stemming from cost pressures on isolated programs like SiAW and GEM 63XL. These headline margin concerns triggered an initial sharp selloff that breached the bear floor, cementing a bear outcome despite the stock's subsequent recovery by the outcome date.
Northrop Grumman's Q2 2026 earnings report, focusing heavily on free cash flow trajectory after a deeply negative $1.82B recent print, alongside margin health on the Sentinel and B-21 programs.
- Tue21Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $575.28 at outcome
The stock fell 5.9% following the Q1 2026 earnings release, despite an EPS beat of 0.0%. The guidance update likely signaled softer-than-expected outlook, contributing to the decline. The stock closed below the bear floor of $555.00, reinforcing the bearish outcome.
- Sun15Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $733.71 at outcome
While the FY2027 budget cycle and subsequent White House meetings mandated a quadrupling of 'Exquisite Class' weaponry production—a significant volume win for Northrop's advanced systems—the proposal also integrated the administration's aggressive cost-cutting and efficiency initiatives. This fundamental conflict between massive production targets and program-specific efficiency risks caused the stock to stall, as the market weighed the upside of increased procurement against the potential for squeezed margins and program cancellations.
- Tue27Jan
Actual outcome: Bull · $704.98 at outcome
The stock rose 3.9% following the Q4 2025 earnings report as the company beat EPS estimates and provided positive forward guidance. The market reacted favorably to the strong earnings performance and optimistic outlook, which signaled stability and growth potential, driving the rally despite any minor misses.
Scouting Reports
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Defense Stocks Surge as Dow Tumbles 785 Points on Iran Conflict Escalation
Mar 6, 2026
Wall Street is currently repricing risk in real-time. Following reported strikes involving U.S. and Israeli forces and the escalation of the conflict in Iran, the broad market has stumbled, but a clea
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Kinetic Escalation: Defense Stocks Rotate to the Front Lines Following Iran Strikes
Mar 3, 2026
The geopolitical risk premium returned to Wall Street with force today. Following confirmed U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran, the broader indices are masking a violent rotation beneath the surface.
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