COPConocoPhillips
ConocoPhillips sells oil, natural gas, and refined products across the U.S. and internationally, with a heavy focus on upstream operations in the Permian Basin and the Middle East. Its next catalyst is Nov 5, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to deliver on cost controls and capital efficiency amid volatile oil prices.
- Revenue hit $57.55B in 2026, with a net margin of 17.0% (TTM)
- Debt-to-equity ratio of 0.36x, suggesting moderate leverage
- Net income of $9.81B, translating to a diluted EPS of $3.23
The schedule
- Thu5Nov
The Q3 2026 Earnings Release is a significant event for COP, as it will provide insight into the company's third-quarter performance. This event is expected to have a high impact on the stock price, with historical data indicating a balanced outcome. The median path change from the base price is projected to be +6.99%, while a drawdown of -3.26% is also possible. Sector-wide trends suggest a robust upward momentum, with a median first-to-last change of +4.86%.
- Tue9Feb
The Q4 2026 Earnings Release is a key event for COP, offering a glimpse into the company's fourth-quarter performance. This event is anticipated to have a high impact on the stock, with historical data showing a balanced outcome. The median path change from the base price is expected to be +6.99%, while a drawdown of -3.26% remains a possibility. Sector-wide trends indicate a strong upward momentum, with a median first-to-last change of +4.86%.
- Thu6May
The Q1 2027 Earnings Release is an important event for COP, providing insight into the company's first-quarter performance. This event is expected to have a high impact on the stock price, with historical data indicating a balanced outcome. The median path change from the base price is projected to be +6.99%, while a drawdown of -3.26% is also possible. Sector-wide trends suggest a robust upward momentum, with a median first-to-last change of +4.86%.
- Thu5Aug
The Q2 2027 Earnings Release is a critical event for COP, offering a look at the company's second-quarter performance. This event is anticipated to have a high impact on the stock, with historical data showing a balanced outcome. The median path change from the base price is expected to be +6.99%, while a drawdown of -3.26% remains a possibility. Sector-wide trends indicate a strong upward momentum, with a median first-to-last change of +4.86%.
Past
- Fri17Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $145.67 at outcome
ConocoPhillips (COP) announced a significant deal to acquire a 42% stake in BP's Kirkuk oilfields, supporting redevelopment of four producing oilfields in Iraq. This strategic move enhances COP's oil production potential and positions it to benefit from Iraq's growing energy sector. The deal reflects strong operational and geopolitical momentum in the region. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Missed anticipation: +42.3% from 2026-07-01 to 2026-10-16 (~2.5σ vs typical 75d vol). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-16 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-19: +42.9% from 2026-07-01 (~2.5σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-20: +39.6% from 2026-07-02 (~2.3σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-21: +41.8% from 2026-07-06 (~2.5σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-21 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-22: +35.3% from 2026-07-07 (~2.1σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-22 observed.
ConocoPhillips (COP) announced a significant deal to acquire a 42% stake in BP's Kirkuk oilfields, supporting redevelopment of four producing oilfields in Iraq. This strategic move enhances COP's oil production potential and positions it to benefit from Iraq's growing energy sector. The deal reflects strong operational and geopolitical momentum in the region. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Missed anticipation: +42.3% from 2026-07-01 to 2026-10-16 (~2.5σ vs typical 75d vol). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-16 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-19: +42.9% from 2026-07-01 (~2.5σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-19 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-20: +39.6% from 2026-07-02 (~2.3σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-20 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-21: +41.8% from 2026-07-06 (~2.5σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-21 observed. [Market retrospective · Long-Term (31–75 days)] Updated observation 2026-10-22: +35.3% from 2026-07-07 (~2.1σ). Target date 2026-09-15 reached; move through 2026-10-22 observed.
- Tue12May
Actual outcome: Bear · $125.11 at outcome
ConocoPhillips reported earnings that exactly met Wall Street estimates with an EPS of $1.78. Despite securing a long-term Alaska LNG supply deal, the stock ultimately broke below the bear floor as the market focused on free cash flow concerns, which were exacerbated by announcements of higher 2026 capital spending to boost Lower 48 output and expected delays in its Qatar gas joint ventures.
ConocoPhillips reported earnings that exactly met Wall Street estimates with an EPS of $1.78. Despite securing a long-term Alaska LNG supply deal, the stock ultimately broke below the bear floor as the market focused on free cash flow concerns, which were exacerbated by announcements of higher 2026 capital spending to boost Lower 48 output and expected delays in its Qatar gas joint ventures.
- Thu30Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $117.87 at outcome
ConocoPhillips delivered a mixed Q1 2026 report, beating EPS estimates on the back of strong cost controls but missing revenue expectations due to softer realized prices and lower volumes. Despite generating $2.4 billion in free cash flow and returning $2 billion to shareholders, the company cut its forward output guidance amid lower gas prices and regional uncertainties, which kept the stock subdued near the bear floor.
ConocoPhillips delivered a mixed Q1 2026 report, beating EPS estimates on the back of strong cost controls but missing revenue expectations due to softer realized prices and lower volumes. Despite generating $2.4 billion in free cash flow and returning $2 billion to shareholders, the company cut its forward output guidance amid lower gas prices and regional uncertainties, which kept the stock subdued near the bear floor.
- Mon2Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $117.03 at outcome
ConocoPhillips shares surged past the bull target as oil prices spiked following the outbreak of war between the U.S./Israel and Iran, which threatened global supply via the Strait of Hormuz. The stock's rally was further supported by its addition to the Goldman Sachs conviction list and a price target upgrade to $135 from Citigroup, highlighting the company's significant free cash flow leverage to rising crude benchmarks.
ConocoPhillips shares surged past the bull target as oil prices spiked following the outbreak of war between the U.S./Israel and Iran, which threatened global supply via the Strait of Hormuz. The stock's rally was further supported by its addition to the Goldman Sachs conviction list and a price target upgrade to $135 from Citigroup, highlighting the company's significant free cash flow leverage to rising crude benchmarks.
- Tue17Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $110.83 at outcome
ConocoPhillips reported a Q4 2025 EPS miss ($1.02 vs. $1.07 estimate), but the stock rallied significantly because the market prioritized underlying operational strength and long-term guidance. Management emphasized strong operational execution, noting that 2025 production was in line while capital and costs beat expectations. The focus on a disciplined, 'cash-first' strategy and a multi-year free cash flow growth plan through 2029 drove the stock well above the bull target.
ConocoPhillips reported a Q4 2025 EPS miss ($1.02 vs. $1.07 estimate), but the stock rallied significantly because the market prioritized underlying operational strength and long-term guidance. Management emphasized strong operational execution, noting that 2025 production was in line while capital and costs beat expectations. The focus on a disciplined, 'cash-first' strategy and a multi-year free cash flow growth plan through 2029 drove the stock well above the bull target.
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