ARMArm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
This is the year Arm has to prove it can still move the needle in a sector that’s been more about consolidation than innovation.30 and a bull target of $325.00, while the bear fallback is $235.00. The lean is 55% toward the bull, which is a solid start, but it’s not a guarantee. The path from there is a series of high-impact events, each with its own set of risks and rewards, and the market is watching to see if Arm can keep the momentum going.
The schedule
- Thu10Dec
Export control risks linked to Arm's chip architecture.
- Thu4Feb
FY27 earnings guidance with dynamic resistance at 323.79.
- Thu18Mar
RISC-V architecture competition and client adoption risks.
- Wed5May
Earnings release with peak macro exemption target at 350.
- Wed28Jul
Second-half earnings with structural valuation support.
Past
- Wed29Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $224.89 at outcome
Arm Holdings reported better-than-expected first-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results after the market close on July 29, 2026. The company also forecasted second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations, fueled by surging demand for its chip architectures in AI data centers. The dual top-and-bottom-line beat along with upbeat guidance sparked a major surge in the stock. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Missed anticipation: +43.7% from 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-29 (~3.6σ vs typical 10d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-08-05 (not yet reached as of 2026-07-29). Confidence 95%.
Arm Holdings reported better-than-expected first-quarter fiscal year 2027 financial results after the market close on July 29, 2026. The company also forecasted second-quarter revenue above Wall Street expectations, fueled by surging demand for its chip architectures in AI data centers. The dual top-and-bottom-line beat along with upbeat guidance sparked a major surge in the stock. [Market retrospective · Short-Term (6–10 days)] Missed anticipation: +43.7% from 2026-05-08 to 2026-07-29 (~3.6σ vs typical 10d vol). Target evaluation date 2026-08-05 (not yet reached as of 2026-07-29). Confidence 95%.
- Wed4Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $123.70 at outcome
ARM reported a Q3 EPS beat and provided robust FY2027 top-line growth guidance of approximately 20% YoY. Crucially, the company confirmed the success of its higher-royalty Armv9 architecture, noting that data center royalty revenue more than doubled year-over-year. This strong execution validated the bull case expectation of increased revenue-per-chip and reinforced ARM's position as a foundational AI infrastructure utility, driving the stock nearly 18% higher toward the bull target.
ARM reported a Q3 EPS beat and provided robust FY2027 top-line growth guidance of approximately 20% YoY. Crucially, the company confirmed the success of its higher-royalty Armv9 architecture, noting that data center royalty revenue more than doubled year-over-year. This strong execution validated the bull case expectation of increased revenue-per-chip and reinforced ARM's position as a foundational AI infrastructure utility, driving the stock nearly 18% higher toward the bull target.
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