SPSCSPS Commerce, Inc.
The Read
SPSC's stock historically reacted with a median absolute move of ~21%.
The schedule
- Wed9Sep
Management presentations at key September technology conferences, providing updates on retail integration network volumes and potential supply chain digitization tailwinds heading into the fourth quarter.
- Thu29Oct
SPSC delivers its Q3 2026 earnings print, historically a critical indicator of retail supplier onboarding and Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) transaction velocity ahead of the peak holiday shopping season.
- Tue12Jan
SPSC's participation at the National Retail Federation (NRF) conference, setting early expectations for retail IT budgets and supply chain software adoption for 2027.
- Tue9Feb
The pivotal release of FY2027 full-year financial guidance and Q4 2026 earnings, heavily scrutinized following the severe multiple derating caused by the company's 2026 outlook misstep.
- Thu29Apr
Q1 2027 financial performance and potential updates on activist-led strategic reviews, margin expansion initiatives, or corporate restructuring.
Past
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $74.75 at outcome
SPSC beat earnings estimates with an EPS of $0.53 versus the estimate of $0.53, and its revenue and Adjusted EBITDA exceeded the high end of guidance. The company also provided updated full-year 2026 guidance following a recent divestiture, signaling confidence in its growth trajectory, which drove the stock higher.
SPSC reports Q2 2026 earnings, with the market intensely focused on any reacceleration of top-line revenue from the sluggish 6-7% YoY pace seen in the first quarter.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bear · $53.48 at outcome
SPS Commerce reported Q1 2026 financial results, delivering 6% overall revenue growth and 7% recurring revenue growth year-over-year, alongside an adjusted earnings beat of $1.10 per share. Despite topping bottom-line estimates, the stock fell 5.3% over the outcome period, as the single-digit top-line growth likely failed to satisfy the market's higher growth expectations and valuation demands.
SPS Commerce reported Q1 2026 financial results, delivering 6% overall revenue growth and 7% recurring revenue growth year-over-year, alongside an adjusted earnings beat of $1.10 per share. Despite topping bottom-line estimates, the stock fell 5.3% over the outcome period, as the single-digit top-line growth likely failed to satisfy the market's higher growth expectations and valuation demands.
- Sun1Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $55.08 at outcome
The stock surged past bull targets as Irenic Capital established a $40 million stake, signaling institutional confidence that the post-earnings sell-off was overdone relative to the company's record of 100 consecutive growth quarters. This significant insider-style buying, combined with management's participation in the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference to clarify the long-term outlook, successfully shifted investor focus away from initial guidance concerns toward the company's fundamental resilience.
The stock surged past bull targets as Irenic Capital established a $40 million stake, signaling institutional confidence that the post-earnings sell-off was overdone relative to the company's record of 100 consecutive growth quarters. This significant insider-style buying, combined with management's participation in the Morgan Stanley TMT Conference to clarify the long-term outlook, successfully shifted investor focus away from initial guidance concerns toward the company's fundamental resilience.
- Mon9Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $61.92 at outcome
SPSC reported a headline Q4 EPS beat ($1.14 vs. $1.00 estimate); however, the stock subsequently collapsed, falling far below the $80 bear floor. This severe negative reaction indicates that the crucial FY2026 guidance failed to meet expectations regarding subscription revenue growth or operating leverage, overriding the minor earnings beat and confirming the bear scenario.
SPSC reported a headline Q4 EPS beat ($1.14 vs. $1.00 estimate); however, the stock subsequently collapsed, falling far below the $80 bear floor. This severe negative reaction indicates that the crucial FY2026 guidance failed to meet expectations regarding subscription revenue growth or operating leverage, overriding the minor earnings beat and confirming the bear scenario.