CMGChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. sells fast-casual Mexican-inspired meals through a network of company-operated and franchised restaurants. The next catalyst is Oct 29, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the business’s ability to sustain revenue growth and stabilize same-store sales after a recent dip.
- Chipotle operates 3,400+ locations in the U.S. and internationally, with a focus on high-volume, low-margin food service.
- The company has faced persistent same-store sales declines, though recent Q2 2026 results showed a 9.3% revenue increase.
- Free cash flow remains strong at $3.44B TTM, but net margins are under pressure at 11.1%.
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
The Q3 2026 Earnings Release is a significant event that will provide insight into the company's financial performance for the third quarter of 2026. This event is expected to have a high impact on the stock price due to its potential to influence investor sentiment and market expectations. The stock is projected to move towards a target price of $41, with a fallback level at $34 if the outcome is negative. The bull probability is set at 50%, reflecting a balanced outlook based on historical trends and sector conditions.
- Thu29Apr
The Q1 2027 Earnings Release is a major event that will provide insight into the company's financial performance for the first quarter of 2027. This event is expected to have a high impact on the stock price due to its potential to influence investor sentiment and market expectations. The stock is projected to move towards a target price of $42, with a fallback level at $33 if the outcome is negative. The bull probability is set at 50%, reflecting a balanced outlook based on historical trends and sector conditions.
- Thu29Jul
- Thu28Oct
Past
- Mon21Sep
The Computer Modelling Group Ltd news event is related to operational updates or strategic announcements that could affect the company's direction and performance. This event is expected to have a medium impact on the stock price, as it may influence short-term market sentiment without providing clear, specific details. The stock is projected to move towards a target price of $39, with a fallback level at $35 if the news is unfavorable. The bull probability is set at 55%, indicating a slightly more optimistic outlook due to the potential for positive news.
- Fri31Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $37.46 at outcome
Chipotle reported Q2 2026 revenue of $3.3 billion, a 9.3% year-over-year increase, and met EPS estimates at $0.32 while posting a 2.2% rise in comparable restaurant sales. The stock rallied significantly as management raised its full-year comparable sales forecast and highlighted strong momentum from its 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, digital engagement, and new store openings. Despite ongoing margin pressures, investors rewarded the robust top-line growth and upbeat guidance, driving shares well past the bull target.
Chipotle reported Q2 2026 revenue of $3.3 billion, a 9.3% year-over-year increase, and met EPS estimates at $0.32 while posting a 2.2% rise in comparable restaurant sales. The stock rallied significantly as management raised its full-year comparable sales forecast and highlighted strong momentum from its 'Recipe for Growth' strategy, digital engagement, and new store openings. Despite ongoing margin pressures, investors rewarded the robust top-line growth and upbeat guidance, driving shares well past the bull target.
- Wed29Apr
Actual outcome: Mixed · $32.74 at outcome
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported earnings in line with expectations, but same-store sales declined, disappointing Wall Street. The stock fell due to ongoing concerns about sales trends and the lack of a clear turnaround strategy, despite the EPS beat.
Chipotle Mexican Grill reported earnings in line with expectations, but same-store sales declined, disappointing Wall Street. The stock fell due to ongoing concerns about sales trends and the lack of a clear turnaround strategy, despite the EPS beat.
- Sun15Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $34.09 at outcome
While Chipotle successfully launched its AI-driven personalization and a high-performing new sauce, the positive momentum was offset by management's flat 2026 comparable sales guidance and concerns over macro headwinds. The stock's inability to reach the bull target by the run date reflects a tug-of-war between bullish analyst upgrades and heavy institutional selling triggered by fears of decelerating traffic and GLP-1 drug impacts.
While Chipotle successfully launched its AI-driven personalization and a high-performing new sauce, the positive momentum was offset by management's flat 2026 comparable sales guidance and concerns over macro headwinds. The stock's inability to reach the bull target by the run date reflects a tug-of-war between bullish analyst upgrades and heavy institutional selling triggered by fears of decelerating traffic and GLP-1 drug impacts.
- Wed4Feb
Actual outcome: Mixed · $39.39 at outcome
CMG reported a modest beat on Q4 EPS and revenue but provided disappointing 2026 guidance, projecting flat same-store sales growth (SSSG) and noting ongoing traffic declines. This conservative outlook failed to deliver the acceleration required to sustain the stock's premium valuation, leading analysts to slash forecasts despite the Q4 beat. Consequently, the stock remained volatile and settled in a mixed range as the market weighed the short-term results against long-term demand challenges.
CMG reported a modest beat on Q4 EPS and revenue but provided disappointing 2026 guidance, projecting flat same-store sales growth (SSSG) and noting ongoing traffic declines. This conservative outlook failed to deliver the acceleration required to sustain the stock's premium valuation, leading analysts to slash forecasts despite the Q4 beat. Consequently, the stock remained volatile and settled in a mixed range as the market weighed the short-term results against long-term demand challenges.
