SPIRSpire Global, Inc.
Spire Global, Inc. (SPIR) sells satellite data, analytics, and intelligence services, primarily to government and commercial clients. The next catalyst is Oct 30, 2026 — Major Competitor Platform Launch (Starlink/SpaceX Expansion), which will test Spire’s ability to defend its satellite data and tracking capabilities against a major competitor’s expansion.
- Spire operates in a niche but high-margin segment of the satellite data market, with a focus on real-time space domain awareness.
- The company has faced recurring revenue declines and negative net margins, but recent private placements and new contracts hint at potential stabilization.
- The upcoming Starlink expansion could disrupt Spire’s core business, especially if SpaceX’s platform offers lower-cost, higher-resolution data at scale.
The Read
Spire Global's stock rose about 6% after strong Q4 2025 growth and margin gains eased revenue concerns, then held steady despite losing a major contract due to offsetting Munich facility plans, and gained about 3% on Q1 2026 results beating guidance and a new data partnership.
The schedule
- Fri30Oct
The event will test how SPIRE's market position is affected by a major competitor's platform launch, which could impact product adoption and revenue growth.
- Tue10Nov
The earnings report tests whether SPIRE can deliver consistent revenue growth and margin expansion, following a recent capital raise that diluted shares. The last earnings print showed a bearish outcome due to guidance cuts and margin pressure.
- Sun14Feb
This report will test the company's ability to sustain revenue momentum and improve operating leverage, especially after the capital raise. The last earnings print showed a bearish outcome due to weak guidance and margin compression.
- Thu13May
The earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain revenue growth and improve margins, especially with the recent capital raise. The last earnings print showed a bearish outcome due to weak guidance and margin compression.
- Tue10Aug
This report will test the company's ability to sustain revenue momentum and improve operating leverage, especially after the capital raise. The last earnings print showed a bearish outcome due to weak guidance and margin compression.
Past
- Sun20Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $11.74 at outcome
The stock fell 2.0% following the NOAA/NASA contract renewal decision, as the outcome did not meet expectations for contract expansion. The news signaled limited growth potential, leading to a bearish reaction. The price movement aligned with the bear floor, indicating investor concerns over the lack of significant contract renewal or expansion.
Anticipated decision regarding the renewal or expansion of government radio occultation data contracts.
- Tue11Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $13.84 at outcome
Spire Global reported Q2 2026 earnings of -$0.78 per share, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 5.9% post-earnings. The mixed results, combined with a lack of strong forward guidance, led to investor caution, despite the NOAA contract award and revenue reaffirmation, which failed to offset the bearish sentiment.
Q2 2026 earnings release focusing on ARR stability across maritime, aviation, and weather data segments.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $10.54 at outcome
The stock fell 22.7% following the event, hitting below the bear floor of $13.00. Despite positive news such as new product launches, executive appointments, and satellite launches, the market reacted negatively, likely due to ongoing concerns about the company's cash burn and the dilutive capital raise announcement, which overshadowed the positive developments.
Potential execution of a dilutive equity or convertible debt offering to address persistent cash burn.
- Thu14May
Actual outcome: Bull · $19.13 at outcome
Spire Global reported Q1 2026 results that met EPS estimates and exceeded the company's own guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA. Management's reiteration of its full-year outlook, combined with a new data integration partnership with Amadeus, reassured investors and drove the stock 5% higher by the outcome date.
Q1 2026 results will test whether Spire can re‑accelerate ARR and narrow cash burn; a credible path to sustainable growth and improving free cash flow could break the stock out toward $21.00, while another quarter of revenue contraction or heavy capex could pull it back toward $21.00.
- Fri1May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $18.49 at outcome
Despite news that Spire Global lost a major contract equivalent to nine months of 2025 revenue, the stock's reaction was muted, rising just 1.7% by the outcome date. The negative impact of the lost contract was likely offset by the company's subsequent announcement of a new satellite manufacturing facility in Munich aimed at supporting sovereign space-based intelligence capabilities, resulting in mixed, relatively flat price action.
Binary award risk around a potential US government/DOD contract for satellite-powered weather and maritime intelligence, with upside to $19.75 if Spire converts HyMS and recent technical milestones into a meaningful multi‑year award, and downside to $15.50 if awards are delayed, sized below expectations, or steered to larger incumbents.
- Thu19Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.55 at outcome
Spire Global met EPS estimates at -$0.61, but the stock fell below the $10.00 bear floor as the results failed to provide the revenue stabilization or strong 2026 guidance needed to reverse the momentum loss from 2025. While the company announced operational milestones, including the arrival of ten satellites at a launch site and new sea ice mapping capabilities, these developments were overshadowed by fundamental concerns regarding ARR growth and the quality of the stabilization.
The primary focus will be on Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth and revenue stabilization after a sharp sequential decline in Q3 2025. Weak guidance for 2026 would confirm a loss of operating momentum.
