CFFNCapitol Federal Financial, Inc.
Capitol Federal Financial, Inc. (CFFN) is a regional thrift that originates and services residential mortgages, primarily in the Midwest. The next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — Credit Risk Review, which will test the company’s ability to manage credit quality under evolving regulatory and market conditions.
- Revenue in the most recent 10-Q was $34.80M, with a net margin of 241.9% (TTM).
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $1.05B, and the company carries a debt-to-equity ratio of 2.72x.
- The stock historically moved with a median absolute move of ~3% on catalysts.
The Read
Capitol Federal Financial's stock historically reacted with a median absolute move of ~3%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Review of credit risk exposure and loan quality, with potential implications for capital adequacy.
- Fri6Nov
Earnings release for Q3 2026, with focus on loan growth, credit quality, and interest rate sensitivity.
- Fri20Nov
Update on regulatory requirements and compliance, with potential implications for capital adequacy.
- Tue1Dec
Release of fourth quarter outlook, including guidance on loan growth, credit quality, and interest rate sensitivity.
- Fri5Feb
- Fri7May
- Fri6Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $8.24 at outcome
The Federal Reserve's policy update signaled an interest rate trajectory that raised concerns over prolonged funding cost pressures and tighter credit conditions. The stock sold off as investors priced in the likelihood of compressed net interest margins, aligning directly with the modeled bear case for adverse macroeconomic impacts on the bank's profitability.
Federal Reserve policy update with potential implications for interest rates and credit conditions.
- Fri7Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $8.73 at outcome
Capitol Federal Financial reported in-line EPS of $0.16 and announced a quarterly cash dividend of $0.085 per share alongside a stock buyback update. The stock reached the bull target as investors were encouraged by the steady earnings performance, consistent capital returns to shareholders, and increased institutional backing.
Quarterly earnings report evaluating recent NIM expansion and potential for a breakout near the 52-week high.
- Wed17Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $8.45 at outcome
The June FOMC meeting delivered a more dovish policy outlook than the market anticipated, easing fears of a prolonged 'higher-for-longer' interest rate environment. This shift alleviated persistent duration concerns and funding cost pressures, driving the stock to rally past the $8.35 bull target.
The June FOMC meeting will act as a primary transmission mechanism for 'higher-for-longer' interest rate risks. The expected resolution level spans a $8.35 target if dovish surprises materialize, or a $7.15 fallback on persistent duration concerns.
- Wed22Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $7.78 at outcome
Capitol Federal Financial delivered mixed Q2 FY2026 results, missing Zacks consensus estimates for revenue and earnings ($0.16 per share versus $0.17 expected), though EPS still improved from $0.12 a year ago. Despite the slight earnings miss, the company's announcement of a quarterly cash dividend and a stock buyback update helped support the stock, resulting in a relatively flat price reaction as investors balanced the softer fundamentals with continued shareholder returns.
Q2 FY2026 results will test whether recent revenue and net income growth can sustain a premium multiple with CFFN trading at $7.57 near its 52-week high; a clean beat with stable deposit costs could support a move toward $7.90, while any signs of NIM compression or credit normalization could drive the stock back toward $7.90 as investors reassess valuation.
