AAAlcoa Corp
Alcoa Corp (AA) is a global leader in aluminum production, with operations spanning mining, refining, and smelting. The company sells bauxite, alumina, and aluminum products to manufacturers across industries like automotive, aerospace, and packaging. The next catalyst is Oct 3, 2026 — Alcoa Announces Acquisition, where the company will finalize its $4.1 billion acquisition of South32’s bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. This event will test Alcoa’s ability to integrate new operations and expand its footprint in the aluminum value chain .
- Alcoa’s revenue grew 7.9% YoY to $13.17B, with a net margin of 9.3% and free cash flow of $438M in the latest TTM.
- The company’s debt-to-equity ratio is 0.47x, suggesting a relatively stable capital structure.
- Alcoa’s free cash flow has been a key driver of shareholder returns, with a strong balance sheet supporting its M&A ambitions.
The Read
Alcoa's stock historically reacted with a median absolute move of ~9%.
The schedule
- Sat3Oct
The acquisition announcement will test investor confidence in the company's strategic direction and its ability to integrate new assets without overextending cash flow.
- Wed21Oct
This earnings release will test the company's ability to maintain margins and manage cash flow amid volatile aluminum prices and macroeconomic uncertainty. The outcome will be critical for assessing the company's operational efficiency and strategic positioning in the global market.
- Fri15Jan
- Wed31Mar
Resource news could impact the company's exposure to raw material costs and its ability to pass on price increases to customers.
- Fri16Apr
- Wed30Jun
Further resource news could test the company's resilience in a volatile market and its ability to adapt to changing supply and demand dynamics.
- Fri16Jul
- Thu30Sep
Resource news could test the company's resilience in a volatile market and its ability to adapt to changing supply and demand dynamics.
Past
- Thu10Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $41.97 at outcome
Alcoa's stock closed at $48.26, just above the bear floor of $48.00, indicating a bearish outcome. The stock remained flat from the event date to the outcome date, suggesting limited positive sentiment. The participation in the Jefferies conference did not generate enough momentum to push the stock above the bull target, and the lack of significant price movement indicates the market was unconvinced by the event's potential impact.
Participation in Jefferies' aluminum sector conference with potential for price movement.
- Thu16Jul
Actual outcome: Mixed · $46.17 at outcome
Alcoa met Q2 EPS estimates and reported higher revenue driven by stronger aluminum prices and increased shipments. However, the company trimmed its full-year alumina production guidance due to weather-related disruptions at an Australian facility. This combination of strong quarterly operational performance offset by a lowered production outlook resulted in a muted, slightly negative price reaction.
Alcoa met Q2 EPS estimates and reported higher revenue driven by stronger aluminum prices and increased shipments. However, the company trimmed its full-year alumina production guidance due to weather-related disruptions at an Australian facility. This combination of strong quarterly operational performance offset by a lowered production outlook resulted in a muted, slightly negative price reaction.
- Thu30Apr
Actual outcome: Mixed · $64.14 at outcome
Alcoa reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1.61, exactly meeting analyst estimates. While the initial price reaction was muted, shares subsequently surged past the $82.00 bull target. The delayed rally was supported by tightening aluminum markets, the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend, and strategic investments in critical minerals like gallium.
Alcoa reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1.61, exactly meeting analyst estimates. While the initial price reaction was muted, shares subsequently surged past the $82.00 bull target. The delayed rally was supported by tightening aluminum markets, the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend, and strategic investments in critical minerals like gallium.
- Thu5Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $63.59 at outcome
Alcoa's stock exceeded the bull target as the company reported robust quarterly revenue of $3.4 billion, fueled by elevated aluminum and alumina prices and a momentum-building Aluminum segment. While shares faced brief pressure in mid-February from reports of potential tariff rollbacks, the fundamental strength of smelter restarts and increased 2026 output projections drove a technical breakout and sustained the rally.
Alcoa's stock exceeded the bull target as the company reported robust quarterly revenue of $3.4 billion, fueled by elevated aluminum and alumina prices and a momentum-building Aluminum segment. While shares faced brief pressure in mid-February from reports of potential tariff rollbacks, the fundamental strength of smelter restarts and increased 2026 output projections drove a technical breakout and sustained the rally.
Scouting Reports
The $700B Capex Wall: Testing Tech's Immunity to 5.3% Yields
Oct 6, 2026
Monday's price action delivered a textbook contradiction. The Nasdaq Composite sailed to a record 27,477 and NVDA printed fresh all-time highs, right alongside the 10-year Treasury yield surging past
Read more →
Weekly Playbook: Rates, Repurchases, and FX Risks (BWB, AAGTX, CIBEY)
Aug 23, 2026
The Financials sector operates as a massive transmission mechanism for liquidity, and this week’s catalyst slate isolates three distinct points along that chain. From regional banks managing excess ca
Read more →
The SaaS Capex Trap: Software's AI Monetization Reckoning
Jul 2, 2026
Michael Burry has trained his sights on the AI infrastructure trade, packaging new short bets against heavy machinery and a major chip ETF (because nothing says 'secular growth' like shorting Caterpil
Read more →