couterCase studies

TOP IDEAS VS SPY

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Weekly equal-weight Top 10. Hypothetical — not advice.

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TK: Rally to $13.65 | +18.8% in 73 Days

TEEKAY CORPORATION$11.79 on Aug 3→$14.01 on Oct 15, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current TK research

The opportunity

As the market evaluated the seasonal ramp in tanker demand ahead of winter, Teekay Corporation emerged as a key beneficiary of tight supply chains and evolving OPEC+ dynamics.

The forecast

The bull target of $13.65 was based on sustained risk premiums and extended voyages keeping fleet utilization high. A bear floor of $11.20 was outlined if geopolitical tensions eased or OPEC+ oversupplied the market too quickly.

The payoff

By the target window, the stock rose 20.2% from the event date, hitting $14.01 and surpassing the bull target, with a realized return of 18.8% from the snapshot price.

TK
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ECPG: Rises +2.5% in 35 Days | +2.5% in 35 Days

ENCORE CAPITAL GROUP, INC.$96.60 on Sep 2→$98.99 on Oct 7, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current ECPG research

The opportunity

The opportunity emerged as the CFPB scrutinized collections practices, setting the stage for a potential re-rating toward the $97.00 bull target.

The forecast

The bull target of $97.00 was positioned as a re-rating from the catalyst, while the bear floor at $87.00 served as a fallback if regulatory friction outweighed federal deregulation.

The payoff

The stock remained flat following the CFPB scrutiny event, with no clear directional movement toward either the bull target or bear floor. The lack of material price action suggests investor sentiment was neutral.

ECPG
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SBET: Rises +80.3% in 84 Days | New Sportsbook and Media Integration Announcements for 2026 NFL Season

SHARPLINK, INC.$5.31 on Jul 9→$9.58 on Oct 1, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current SBET research

The opportunity

SBET caught attention as it prepared to unveil new sportsbook and media integrations ahead of the 2026 NFL season, offering a clear narrative for growth.

The forecast

The bull target of $10.00 hinged on securing major partnerships, while a weaker pipeline could cap the stock near $5.50. The NFL season provided a high-impact window for proving conversion economics.

The payoff

SBET rallied to $9.58, delivering an 80.3% return from $5.31, as the stock trended higher following a $200.00 million ETH staking allocation and rising institutional ownership.

SBET
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NEM: Rises 32.5% in 58 Days | +32.5% in 58 Days

NEWMONT CORPORATION$93.25 on Jul 27→$123.52 on Sep 23, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current NEM research

The opportunity

Newmont Corporation caught our attention as macroeconomic policy shifts and real yield movements began to reshape safe-haven demand, offering a clear path to a $120.00 target.

The forecast

The bull case hinges on broader macroeconomic policy shifts under the Trump administration and real yield movements, which historically re-rate Newmont significantly. A bear case would see the price fall to $105.00 if tighter monetary expectations dominate.

The payoff

By the target window, Newmont rose 12.8% from the event date, hitting $123.52 and delivering a 32.5% return from the snapshot price.

NEM
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PCLA: +230.61% in 96 Days | New Enterprise Connectivity Contracts & Product Wins

PICOCELA INC.$2.45 on Jun 11→$8.10 on Sep 15, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current PCLA research

The opportunity

PicoCELA Inc. caught our attention as it prepared to announce new enterprise connectivity contracts and product wins, signaling strong commercial traction in private 5G and industrial IoT.

The forecast

The bull target of $4.50 was seen as achievable if the company delivered credible contracts, but the bear floor was $3.30, reflecting the market’s cautious view on its recurring revenue potential.

The payoff

By the target window, PCLA surged to $8.10, delivering a 230.61% return from the snapshot price of $2.45, far exceeding the bull target of $4.50 and validating the strength of its commercial execution.

PCLA
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FNV: Surged +25.6% in 90 Days | Potential large streaming or royalty acquisition

FRANCO-NEVADA CORPORATION$209.46 on Jun 12→$263.18 on Sep 10, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current FNV research

The opportunity

Franco-Nevada Corporation was flagged for its potential large streaming or royalty acquisition, with management poised to deploy its debt-free balance sheet toward new producing assets.

The forecast

The bull target of $255.00 was set, with a 55% probability of success, while the bear floor was $218.00. The catalyst was management's strategic capital deployment in the late summer.

The payoff

By the target window, FNV surged to $263.18, delivering a 25.6% return, driven by macroeconomic optimism and JPMorgan's bullish gold price forecast.

FNV
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CRARY: Surges 14.3% in 83 Days | +14.3% in 83 Days

CRÉDIT AGRICOLE S.A.$9.32 on Jun 10→$10.65 on Sep 1, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CRARY research

The opportunity

The Opportunity: Crédit Agricole’s Q2 2026 earnings print and capital return commentary were flagged as a key catalyst, with the stock trading near $10.25 ahead of the event.

The forecast

The Forecast: A bull target of $11.10 was set, contingent on robust capital build, stable dividends, and no material credit deterioration. A downside scenario would likely target $10.25, reflecting cautious expectations.

The payoff

The Payoff: By the target window, shares rose to $10.65, delivering a 14.3% return from the snapshot price of $9.32, surpassing the bull target by $0.45.

CRARY
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PROV: Gains +8.00% in 41 Days | +8.00% in 41 Days

PROVIDENT FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC.$16.99 on Jul 20→$18.35 on Aug 30, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current PROV research

The opportunity

We flagged PROV as a key play ahead of its Q2 2026 earnings report, with the market closely watching for signs of sustained earnings momentum and loan growth in a pivotal mid-year update.

The forecast

The bull target of $18.30 was set based on the potential for stable funding costs and a firmer NIM if the yield curve stays positively sloped. A bear floor was not explicitly outlined, but the market was expected to reassess the stock around $17.50 post-Q1 results.

The payoff

By the target window, PROV reached $18.35, delivering a realized return of +8.00% from the snapshot price of $16.99, confirming the bull case as the stock hit the bull target.

PROV
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CG.TO: Surges 44.7% in 51 Days | +44.7% in 51 Days

CENTERRA GOLD INC.$22.49 on Jul 1→$32.55 on Aug 21, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CG.TO research

The opportunity

Centerra Gold Inc. caught our attention as it prepared to release its mid-year reserve and resource update, a critical event for gold miners seeking to signal long-term production sustainability and asset value.

The forecast

The bull target of $32.00 hinged on stable or growing reserves at key operations, while a bear floor of $32.00 reflected potential reserve depletion or higher cut-off grades. A positive reserve replacement story was seen as the catalyst for a rally.

The payoff

By the target window, CG.TO surged to $32.55, delivering a 44.7% return from the snapshot price of $22.49, easily surpassing the bull target and validating the positive reserve update narrative.

CG.TO
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FSUN: Rises +19.3% in 19 Days | +19.3% in 19 Days

FIRSTSUN CAPITAL BANCORP$34.04 on Jul 23→$40.61 on Aug 11, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current FSUN research

The opportunity

FirstSun Capital Bancorp was flagged as a key catalyst for its Q2 2026 earnings report, where investors would see early signs of merger synergy capture and cost savings progress.

The forecast

The bull target of $40.50 was based on the potential for successful integration of the First Foundation acquisition, stable net interest margins, and benign credit costs. A disappointing cost synergy delivery or weaker-than-expected earnings could cap the stock near $33.00.

The payoff

By the target window, FirstSun's stock rallied to $40.61, exceeding the $40.50 bull target by 0.27%. The market focused on the adjusted earnings performance and synergy potential, ignoring one-time integration costs.

FSUN
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CRD-A: Surges +13.6% in 3 Days | Q2 2026 Earnings Release & Catastrophe Season Outlook

CRAWFORD & COMPANY$11.32 on Aug 3→$12.86 on Aug 6, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CRD-A research

The opportunity

Crawford & Company's Q2 2026 earnings release and outlook for the catastrophe season became a key catalyst as investors anticipated stronger operational efficiency and a favorable CAT season.

The forecast

The bull target of $12.50 was seen as achievable if the company delivered strong Q2 results and provided a positive outlook for the hurricane and wildfire season. A severe forecast for the back half of the year would further boost the stock.

The payoff

The stock surged past the bull target, closing at $12.86, delivering a +13.6% return from the snapshot price of $11.32, driven by a strong earnings beat and positive market reaction to the company's strategic moves.

CRD-A
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[TCEHY]: Gaming Approvals Spark Rally | +10.5% in 7 Days

TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED$55.58 on Jul 24→$61.43 on Jul 31, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current TCEHY research

The opportunity

Heading into the NPPA's monthly license batch on July 28, 2026, TCEHY traded at $55.58 as market sentiment remained cautious. However, underlying fundamental strength—highlighted by 20.75% net income growth and a robust $64.00B free cash flow profile—indicated that normalized domestic gaming approvals would quickly re-rate the stock higher.

The forecast

The forecast mapped a path to a bull target of $61.50 based on regulatory pipeline normalization. With predictable approval cycles favoring TCEHY's gaming monetization engine, the catalyst provided a clear path to lift shares off snapshot levels.

The payoff

On July 31, 2026, confirmation arrived as the NPPA approved several new domestic titles for Tencent. The steady pipeline reinforcement pushed TCEHY to an outcome price of $61.43, just $0.07 under the $61.50 bull target and delivering a realized return of +10.52% over the 7-day hold horizon.

TCEHY
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GXO: Contract Renewals Fuel Surge | +8.1% in 34 Days

GXO LOGISTICS, INC.$48.64 on Jun 19→$52.57 on Jul 23, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current GXO research

The opportunity

On June 19, 2026, GXO traded at $48.64 while the market overlooked the potential of its upcoming contract renewal season. We identified an opportunity as strong backlog visibility provided insulation leading into peak holiday preparation.

The forecast

Our path mapped a trajectory toward a $56.00 bull target tied to smooth pipeline conversion, while establishing a $48.50 bear floor in the event of sales execution delays ahead of the catalyst update.

The payoff

By July 23, 2026, GXO climbed to $52.57, delivering an +8.08% realized return over the 34-day hold horizon as major contract wins validated the bullish outlook.

GXO
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OPRT: H1 2026 Asset-Backed Securitization (ABS) or Debt Refinancing | +23.8% in 37 Days

OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPORATION$4.77 on Jun 8→$5.90 on Jul 15, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current OPRT research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced OPRT on 2026-06-08 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of H1 2026 Asset-Backed Securitization (ABS) or Debt Refinancing. With bull probability marked at 60%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $6.00 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on H1 2026 Asset-Backed Securitization (ABS) or Debt Refinancing played out versus the bear floor ($4.60). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $4.77 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Oportun did not release any specific updates regarding an H1 2026 asset-backed securitization or debt refinancing around the event date. However, the stock reached the bull target during the tracking period, with the only notable corporate news being the announcement of its 2026 Scholarship Program. In the absence of negative funding developments, the stock maintained its strength and achieved the bullish price objective.

OPRT
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IFBD: Q1 2026 Earnings Release | +17.4% in 15 Days

INFOBIRD CO., LTD$0.92 on Jun 24→$1.08 on Jul 9, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current IFBD research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced IFBD on 2026-06-24 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q1 2026 Earnings Release. With bull probability marked at 50%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $1.08 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q1 2026 Earnings Release played out versus the bear floor ($0.98). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $0.92 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Infobird reported Q1 2026 earnings with EPS exactly meeting expectations at -$6.79. The market reacted positively to the in-line results, driving the stock to $1.15 and exceeding the $1.08 bull target, as meeting estimates provided reassurance regarding the company's financial trajectory.

IFBD
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FIZZ: Q2 2026 Earnings Release | +7.5% in 2 Days

NATIONAL BEVERAGE CORP.$31.00 on Jul 1→$33.33 on Jul 3, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current FIZZ research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced FIZZ on 2026-07-01 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q2 2026 Earnings Release. With bull probability marked at 60%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $33.50 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q2 2026 Earnings Release played out versus the bear floor ($29.50). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $31.00 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

National Beverage reported in-line EPS of $0.44 and announced a special cash dividend of $3.25 per share. Despite the large dividend announcement, the stock remained flat as the in-line earnings results failed to provide a clear directional catalyst.

FIZZ
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FRME: Yield Curve Normalization Sparks Regional Bank Breakout | +11.49% in 22 Days

FIRST MERCHANTS CORPORATION$38.90 on Jun 3→$43.37 on Jun 25, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current FRME research

The opportunity

On June 3, 2026, regional banking was caught in a tug-of-war. While the broader real estate ecosystem buckled under prolonged high interest rates, we looked at the financial sector's historical resilience during yield curve shifts. FRME stood out, trading at a discounted 12.30x P/E ratio compared to the 13.90x industry average. While the crowd feared deposit beta concerns, we recognized that First Merchants was highly sensitive to the FOMC's upcoming rate trajectory, presenting a mispriced opportunity at a snapshot price of $38.90.

The forecast

Our analysis mapped out a clear path tied to the June 17, 2026 FOMC meeting. A steepening yield curve would support net interest margin expansion, driving FRME shares past their initial resistance of $40.31 toward a bull target of $42.00. Conversely, if a hawkish surprise delayed rate cuts and reignited deposit flight fears, we identified a bear floor down at $38.50. The catalyst hinged entirely on the market's assessment of the Fed's rate trajectory and its direct impact on regional bank margins.

The payoff

The thesis played out beautifully by the June 25, 2026 outcome date. FRME did not just reach the bull target; it surged past it to close at $43.37, delivering a realized return of 11.49% from our $38.90 entry in just 22 days. This rally was supercharged by positive sentiment surrounding a new $2,000,000,000.00 Community Benefits Agreement with the NCRC to expand its Midwest impact. Investors shrugged off a minor insider sale, focusing instead on the bank's strong dividend profile and its favorable positioning along the evolving Fed rate trajectory.

FRME
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AGYS: Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY27 Guidance | +33.6% in 70 Days

AGILYSYS, INC.$65.61 on Apr 8→$87.66 on Jun 17, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current AGYS research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced AGYS on 2026-04-08 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY27 Guidance. With bull probability marked at 55%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $84.00 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Fiscal Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY27 Guidance played out versus the bear floor ($60.00). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $65.61 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Agilysys delivered a strong Q4 double beat, featuring record revenue of $82.90 million, 18% subscription growth, and significant EBITDA margin expansion. The company also issued optimistic FY27 guidance calling for 14-16% revenue growth and 30%+ subscription growth, which shattered investor fears regarding AI disruption and drove a massive rally well past the bull target.

AGYS
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CGON: FDA BLA Acceptance Catalyst Sparks Rally | +8.4% in 2 Days

CG ONCOLOGY, INC. COMMON STOCK$54.92 on Jun 10→$59.56 on Jun 12, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CGON research

The opportunity

We flagged CGON at a snapshot price of $54.92 on 2026-06-10. The stock was sitting near a technical base of $55.53 with its RSI deeply oversold at 29.9. While the broader market waited on the sidelines, we identified an impending high-impact catalyst: the expected FDA decision on accepting the rolling Biologics License Application (BLA) for Cretostimogene, alongside its Priority or Standard Review designation.

The forecast

The path forward hinged on this binary regulatory milestone. A formal BLA acceptance and potential Priority Review was projected to serve as a major de-risking event, clearing the way for a relief rally toward the bull target of $68.00 (aligned with the 50-day SMA). Conversely, a Refuse to File (RTF) letter posed a downside risk, threatening to drag the high-beta stock down to its 200-day SMA at $46.00.

The payoff

By the target date of 2026-06-12, CGON climbed to $59.56, delivering an 8.4% return (8.45% realized return) from our snapshot entry. The rally was fueled by positive investor sentiment following management presentations at the Jefferies and Goldman Sachs Global Healthcare Conferences, where the CEO highlighted upcoming clinical milestones, Phase 3 data readouts, and commercial preparations for Cretostimogene in non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

CGON
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GEN: Q4 FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Update | +14.4% in 21 Days

GEN DIGITAL INC.$23.18 on May 14→$26.52 on Jun 4, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current GEN research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced GEN on 2026-05-14 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q4 FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Update. With bull probability marked at 52%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $26.10 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q4 FY2026 Earnings & FY2027 Guidance Update played out versus the bear floor ($20.40). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $23.18 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Gen Digital delivered strong Q4 results, crossing $5.00 billion in FY26 revenue with double-digit growth and a 121% surge in Trust-Based Solutions revenues. The company also raised its FY27 guidance for both revenue and EPS. Despite the robust fundamental beat and raised outlook, the stock remained flat, likely as the market digested the technically overbought setup that preceded the print.

GEN
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BOOT: Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY2027 Outlook | +11.5% in 17 Days

BOOT BARN HOLDINGS, INC.$153.10 on May 11→$170.77 on May 28, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current BOOT research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced BOOT on 2026-05-11 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY2027 Outlook. With bull probability marked at 55%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $172.50 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q4 2026 Earnings Release & FY2027 Outlook played out versus the bear floor ($154.50). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $153.10 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Boot Barn delivered strong Q4 results, featuring an 18.7% jump in sales, better-than-expected same-store growth, and in-line EPS of $1.46. The stock rallied past the bull target as investors cheered the company's robust 14.1% e-commerce growth, expanding merchandise margins driven by exclusive brands, and aggressive plans to open 70 new stores in fiscal 2027.

BOOT
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TRGP: Guidance Raise Powers Midstream Breakout | +7.23% in 13 Days

TARGA RESOURCES CORP.$252.44 on May 7→$270.69 on May 20, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current TRGP research

The opportunity

Heading into its Q1 2026 earnings on May 7, 2026, Targa Resources Corp. (TRGP) was trading at a premium valuation of $252.44, right near its 52-week highs. While the broader market debated whether seasonally softer natural gas liquids (NGL) prices would drag on performance, we focused on the underlying strength of Permian Basin throughput. Strong upstream activity from peers suggested that midstream volume and fee growth remained highly robust, setting up a high-stakes catalyst for the upcoming EBITDA guidance update.

The forecast

Our analysis mapped out a clear path: if Targa could defend or expand its multiple by showing a credible path to flat-to-up Adjusted EBITDA relative to 2025's record levels, the stock could target a bull price of $265.50. Conversely, any unexpected crack in Permian volume growth or a lower fee-based mix threatened to pull shares down to a bear floor of $243.00. The key was whether Permian NGL volumes and fractionation spreads were tracking ahead of plan.

The payoff

The payoff materialized quickly by the May 20, 2026 target date. Although TRGP initially delivered a mixed Q1 2026 report—missing consensus estimates on both earnings and revenue—the underlying fundamentals told a far stronger story. Targa reported record first-quarter net income and raised its full-year 2026 financial outlook, driven by surging NGL transport volumes. Investors shrugged off the immediate top-line miss to focus on the upgraded guidance, propelling the stock to an exit price of $270.69—surpassing our bull target and delivering a realized return of +7.23% over the 13-day hold horizon.

TRGP
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CPAY: Earnings Beat Drives Surge | +7.4% in 8 Days

CORPAY, INC.$305.75 on May 7→$328.23 on May 15, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CPAY research

The opportunity

Heading into the Q1 2026 print, CPAY faced a wall of worry regarding SME spending and competitive intensity in the B2B payments space. While the company had a history of double-digit growth, recent peer volatility left the stock trading at 305.75 as investors questioned if the organic volume growth could withstand a shifting macro environment.

The forecast

The forecast centered on a bull target of 326, contingent on a clean beat and a confident update to the 2026 outlook. Analysts anticipated a post-print range between 292.00 and 326.00, with the path to the upper bound requiring management to defend margins and prove that the Corporate Payments segment could still outpace the broader market.

The payoff

The payoff arrived on May 15, 2026, as CPAY surged to 328.23 following a dominant Q1 performance. The company reported 25% revenue growth and a 46% year-over-year explosion in Corporate Payments, prompting management to raise full-year guidance. This fundamental strength triggered a 7.35% realized return, clearing the initial bull target within the 8-day window.

CPAY
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CVS: Earnings Beat & Guidance Raise | +12.2% in 3 Days

CVS HEALTH CORPORATION$80.69 on May 5→$90.55 on May 8, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CVS research

The opportunity

Heading into the Q1 2026 print, CVS was testing its 52-week high of $83.90 while the market weighed a crucial tug-of-war. Investors were laser-focused on whether the integration of GLP-1 prescription volumes through Caremark could offset the rising tide of Medicare utilization costs within the Aetna division. With shares trading at $80.69, the setup hinged on management’s ability to leverage a recent CMS rate tailwind to stabilize margins and provide clear forward guidance.

The forecast

The path forward was binary: a confident full-year guide and improved medical cost ratios would clear the way to a bull target of $85.50. Conversely, if retail margin erosion or persistent insurance cost pressures surfaced, we anticipated a valuation reset toward a floor of $78.50. The primary catalyst remained the Q1 operational update, specifically how Aetna managed its Medical Loss Ratio (MLR) amid shifting subscriber costs.

The payoff

CVS delivered a decisive beat on May 6, reporting revenues exceeding $100.00 billion and adjusted EPS of $2.57—significantly topping the $2.21 consensus estimate. The stock didn't just hit the bull target; it surged to $90.55 by May 8 as management raised full-year 2026 guidance. This rally, driven by effective medical cost controls in the Aetna division that addressed key market concerns, secured a 12.2% return in just four days, outperforming the initial $85.50 target by 5.9%.

CVS
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TXT: Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update | +7.5% in 3 Days

TEXTRON INC.$88.14 on Apr 28→$94.72 on May 1, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current TXT research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced TXT on 2026-04-28 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update. With bull probability marked at 55%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $92.50 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Q1 2026 Earnings & FY2026 Guidance Update played out versus the bear floor ($85.00). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $88.14 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Textron’s Q1 EPS came in exactly at the Street estimate ($1.31 vs. $1.31), so there was no clear earnings beat or miss from the headline number. The stock reaction was muted because the quarter looked broadly in line with expectations, with investor focus centered on whether Aviation margins and defense backlog would show enough early FY2026 progress to justify upside, while the only confirmed corporate update around the event was a routine quarterly dividend declaration.

TXT
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BULL: Earnings Catalyst Sparks Mean Reversion | +36.63% in 29 Days

WEBULL CORPORATION CLASS A ORDINARY SHARES$5.05 on Mar 26→$6.90 on Apr 24, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current BULL research

The opportunity

On March 26, 2026, Webull Corporation (BULL) traded at a snapshot price of $5.05, sitting just below its 52-week low of $5.13. While the crowd focused on short-term pressure, our analysis highlighted a massive divergence: BULL was growing revenue at a rapid 53.38% clip. With an RSI flashing deeply oversold at 36.60 and a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation estimated at $35.20, the stock was primed for a violent mean reversion.

The forecast

The catalyst was set for the Q4 2025 earnings release and 2026 forward guidance, expected to benefit from a pro-growth regulatory environment under President Trump's administration. Scouter identified a bull target of $6.80, which sat outside the standard ±1 SD band of $6.02 (the bear floor is not shown in data). The path relied on the market recognizing the company's underlying growth trajectory during the earnings call.

The payoff

The thesis played out rapidly. By the April 24, 2026 target date, BULL surged past the bull target of $6.80 to close at $6.90. Investors who entered at the snapshot price of $5.05 secured a 36.63% return in just 29 days, proving the power of identifying high-growth companies trading at deep technical discounts.

BULL
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ALL: Weathering the Storm | +6.4% in 34 Days

THE ALLSTATE CORPORATION$205.03 on Mar 12→$218.23 on Apr 15, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current ALL research

The opportunity

On March 12, ALL sat at 205.03 as the market awaited the Q1 2026 catastrophe loss assessment. While the crowd braced for winter volatility, we flagged an asymmetric opportunity: a benign weather outcome would confirm an improving combined ratio and trigger a breakout above 52-week resistance.

The forecast

The forecast centered on the March 25 assessment with a bull target of 218. The path relied on the market pricing in improved underwriting margins ahead of the Q1 earnings report, assuming minimal catastrophe losses would provide the fundamental fuel needed to clear technical hurdles.

The payoff

By April 15, ALL reached 218.23, delivering a 6.4% return. The company reported estimated February catastrophe losses of just $140.00 million, signaling fundamental stability. Although institutional selling from major holders like CalPERS eventually capped the momentum, the stock successfully hit the bull target window.

ALL
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ESE: Industrial Execution Defies Budget Fears | +15.2% in 10 Days

ESCO TECHNOLOGIES INC.$268.99 on Mar 30→$309.80 on Apr 9, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current ESE research

The opportunity

We flagged ESE at 268.99 just ahead of a high-stakes US Government budget review. While the broader market braced for potential contract setbacks under shifting federal priorities, the setup highlighted a significant Divergence Driver: the company's revenue and backlog growth appeared to be decoupling from macro fears.

The forecast

The forecast established a bull target of 290, banking on the strength of industrial execution to offset federal timing uncertainties. Analysts looked for the stock to stay within a standard expected move of 14.39, with the bull case underpinned by the belief that the company's core utility and stealth programs would remain insulated from budget volatility.

The payoff

By the April 9 target window, the feared procurement risks failed to materialize into a negative catalyst. Instead, ESE benefited from constructive news flow, including the launch of the Spark P2 handheld diagnostic device by its Doble subsidiary. The stock climbed to 309.8, representing a 15.17% realized return and finishing well above the initial bull target.

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CDE: Annual Reserve and Resource Update | +18.2% in 6 Days

COEUR MINING, INC.$16.17 on Mar 26→$19.11 on Apr 1, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current CDE research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced CDE on 2026-03-26 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Annual Reserve and Resource Update. With bull probability marked at 75%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $19.09 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Annual Reserve and Resource Update played out versus the bear floor ($16.67). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $16.17 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Coeur Mining delivered strong fundamental updates, reporting Q4 revenue up 120% and adjusted EPS up 218%, while successfully completing its New Gold acquisition and updating its mineral reserves. The company also issued robust 2026 guidance projecting $2.00 billion in free cash flow, launched a $750.00 million share buyback, and initiated a dividend. Despite these highly bullish operational results, the stock's upside was constrained by sharp declines in underlying gold and silver prices stemming from broader macroeconomic tensions.

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HLT: Hospitality Giant Surges on MGM Integration | +3.62% in 5 Days

HILTON WORLDWIDE HOLDINGS INC.$292.58 on Mar 20→$303.16 on Mar 25, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current HLT research

The opportunity

On March 20, 2026, HLT traded at $292.58 under technical pressure, with an RSI of 35.6 signaling oversold conditions. While a high debt-to-equity ratio kept investors sensitive to potential delays in high-margin revenue, the market overlooked a prime setup ahead of a major catalyst: management's upcoming integration and loyalty program update with the MGM Collection.

The forecast

Our analysis mapped a path toward a bull target of $305.00, contingent on management demonstrating strong cross-pollination efficiency with the MGM partnership. Clear execution on this high-margin integration was expected to trigger a rapid technical rebound from oversold levels, offsetting debt concerns and restoring investor confidence.

The payoff

By March 25, 2026, the catalyst delivered. HLT climbed to $303.16, representing a +3.62% gain in just 5 days and nearly hitting our $305.00 bull target. The rally was fueled by positive MGM integration metrics, an exclusive global partnership with YOTEL, the launch of the Hilton AI Planner, and new management contracts that solidified the company's growth trajectory.

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DSGX: Logistics Tech Rallies Post-Earnings | +11.9% in 22 Days

THE DESCARTES SYSTEMS GROUP INC.$63.58 on Feb 24→$71.16 on Mar 18, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current DSGX research

The opportunity

On February 24, 2026, we flagged DSGX at a snapshot price of $63.58. The market's attention was locked on the upcoming Q4 FY2026 earnings and FY2027 outlook scheduled for March 11, 2026. With a history of steady beats and organic growth accelerating to 7% in Q3, the company demonstrated that its mission-critical logistics network remained highly resilient. Investors were watching closely to see if a robust M&A pipeline could continue to justify its premium valuation multiples.

The forecast

The forecast established a bull target of $75.00, while the bear floor was not shown in data. The path to this target was heavily tied to the March 11 catalyst. A strong earnings beat and solid organic growth guidance were expected to trigger a short-term relief rally back toward former resistance levels, whereas a growth slowdown would likely confirm the stock's recent technical breakdown.

The payoff

The opportunity played out rapidly. By the target window on March 18, 2026, DSGX climbed from its entry price of $63.58 to an exit price of $71.16. This movement secured an 11.92% return over the 22-day holding period, finishing just 5.12% below the initial bull target of $75.00 as the market responded favorably to the earnings event.

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KFY: Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Release | +1.9% in 17 Days

KORN FERRY$59.54 on Feb 24→$60.68 on Mar 13, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current KFY research

The opportunity

Our system surfaced KFY on 2026-02-24 as liquidity and positioning shifted ahead of Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Release. With bull probability marked at 60%, the setup wasn’t generic “hope” — it was a disciplined read that the tape was mispricing how this catalyst could resolve.

The forecast

We projected rotation toward $66.00 on the bull path — the level where we'd expect repricing if the bullish thesis on Fiscal Q3 2026 Earnings Release played out versus the bear floor ($59.50). Snapshot-day entry on an end-of-day basis: $59.54 — the same anchor we score on Top Ideas.

The payoff

Price reached or fell below bear floor ($59.50) at outcome date.

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SJM: Earnings Beat and Activist Agreement Spark Rally | +4.45% in 8 Days

THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY$106.60 on Feb 25→$111.34 on Mar 5, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current SJM research

The opportunity

Heading into the Q3 print, SJM sat at a significant discount compared to its intrinsic value, with the market skeptical of the Hostess acquisition integration. We flagged the name as a potential recovery play, betting that synergy realization and coffee pricing power would outweigh volume concerns and a bearish sentiment overhang.

The forecast

The bull case targeted 112.00, predicated on a normalized EPS beat and a confirmed deleveraging timeline from the Hostess deal. Conversely, the bear floor sat lower if integration costs or volume softness forced a major guidance cut, potentially stalling the stock's recovery toward the analyst consensus of 113.33.

The payoff

SJM delivered a double beat, reporting adjusted EPS of 2.38 against the 2.27 consensus and 7% sales growth. Despite a manufacturing facility fire that lowered sales forecasts, the stock climbed to 111.34 by March 5, 2026. Investors cheered the maintained EPS guidance and a constructive agreement with Elliott Management to appoint two new directors, resulting in a 4.45% realized return from the 106.60 entry.

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RELY: Remitly Surges on Massive Earnings Beat | +24.62% in 6 Days

REMITLY GLOBAL, INC.$13.08 on Feb 17→$16.30 on Feb 23, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current RELY research

The opportunity

On February 17, 2026, we flagged RELY at a snapshot price of $13.08 ahead of its Q4 2025 earnings report. While the market sought confirmation of consistent GAAP profitability and a 20%+ revenue growth forecast to justify its valuation, strong customer adoption and volume growth in key corridors like India and Mexico set the stage for a potential earnings beat.

The forecast

The forecast established a bull target of $15.50, driven by the potential for Remitly to prove its operational scale. A bear floor was not shown in data, but we warned that a cautious outlook or any deceleration in revenue growth, combined with continued insider selling, would trigger a swift valuation reset.

The payoff

By the outcome date on February 23, 2026, RELY surged to $16.30, delivering a +24.62% return from our snapshot entry in just 6 days and outperforming the bull target of $15.50 by 5.16%. This massive move was triggered by a blockbuster earnings beat of $0.19 per share against a $0.02 estimate, robust 2026 guidance for double-digit revenue growth, and the appointment of new CEO Sebastian J. Gunningham, which reinforced long-term investor confidence.

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GPN: Asymmetric Bounce on Earnings | +18.20% in 3 Days

GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC.$69.77 on Feb 17→$82.47 on Feb 20, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current GPN research

The opportunity

Heading into its Q4 2025 earnings release, GPN sat near its 52-week low with a depressed P/E ratio, setting an incredibly low bar for a positive surprise. While the crowd remained cautious, Scouter flagged the opportunity on February 17, 2026, when the stock was trading at $69.77. The catalyst hinged on organic revenue growth, margin expansion post-divestiture, and strong free cash flow (FCF) allocated toward debt reduction. With an oversold RSI, any positive commentary on FCF conversion and accelerated debt payoff set the stage for an asymmetric bounce.

The forecast

The setup pointed to a bull target of $77.00, driven by the potential for a double beat and constructive FY2026 guidance. Conversely, the fallback scenario accounted for potential consolidation or a bearish turn if management issued weak macro guidance or showed continued underperformance in core segments. The critical path relied on management delivering realistic, solid growth rather than triggering the default bearish consolidation rule associated with weak, single-digit growth guidance.

The payoff

The bullish thesis played out rapidly following the February 18, 2026 release. By the outcome date of February 20, 2026, GPN surged past its bull target of $77.00 to close at $82.47. This swift move delivered a realized return of 18.20% from the snapshot entry price of $69.77 in just 3 days, proving how quickly oversold sentiment can reverse on a strong fundamental catalyst.

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WELL: Senior Housing Giant Beats Estimates | +10.29% in 8 Days

WELLTOWER INC.$191.06 on Feb 5→$210.72 on Feb 13, 2026

Expected Moves week grid · Current WELL research

The opportunity

The Opportunity: Heading into its Q4 2025 earnings release, WELL was trading at a premium valuation of $191.06. While some market participants worried that high expectations were already priced in, our analysis focused on the massive operational momentum within the Seniors Housing Operating Portfolio (SHOP). We recognized that a solid FFO/AFFO beat combined with robust 2026 guidance could easily propel the stock higher, despite potential headwinds from labor or financing costs.

The forecast

The Forecast: The setup demanded a clear fundamental catalyst. To validate the premium valuation and reach our bull target of $195.00, WELL needed to deliver a clean sweep: a strong FFO beat and robust 2026 Same-Store Net Operating Income (SS-NOI) guidance. If management confirmed the post-pandemic recovery thesis with aggressive projections, the path to the target was clear; conversely, any disappointment in labor costs would establish a firm floor for risk management.

The payoff

The Payoff: The catalyst played out exactly as anticipated. On February 10, 2026, Welltower delivered a massive fundamental beat, reporting Q4 FFO and revenue well above consensus estimates. Crucially, the company issued 2026 FFO guidance that exceeded analyst expectations, backed by a robust 15% Same-Store NOI growth in its senior housing portfolio. By the target date of February 13, 2026, the stock surged past our $195.00 bull target to close at $210.72, securing a +10.29% return in just 8 days.

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