ZGZillow Group, Inc. Class A
The Read
25 billion buyback and AI investor events amid weak housing rate stabilization, then dropped further after Q1 earnings showed strong revenue but declining user engagement and a class action probe.
The schedule
- Tue20Oct
Around 2026-10-20, policy developments on federal housing programs and potential GSE reform will shape expectations for mortgage availability, credit standards, and long-term housing demand. A policy tilt toward looser credit or expanded housing support could allow ZG to retrace toward $36.00 by 2026-11-03, while tighter standards or renewed regulatory overhang could hold the stock closer to $26.
- Thu11Feb
The FY 2026 results and capital allocation update on 2027-02-11 will recap a full year of execution under elevated rates, NAR rule changes, and the large buyback authorization. If Zillow can point to sustained free cash flow, share count reduction, and improving returns on AI and product investments, ZG could grind back toward $42.00 by 2027-02-25; if the buyback appears to have merely masked weak EPS growth, the stock may trade closer to $30.
- Wed5May
Q3 2026 earnings on 2026-11-04 will be pivotal for resetting expectations for 2027 growth and profitability. If Zillow can show sustained double-digit revenue growth, improving operating leverage, and a credible 2027 margin expansion path, the stock could rebound toward $40.00 by 2026-11-18; if guidance is cautious or margins stall, ZG may trade back down toward $40.00.
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Thu17Sep
The September 2026 FOMC decision on 2026-09-17 will reset expectations for mortgage rates and housing affordability into 2027. A more dovish path that brings down long-term yields could support a modest recovery in housing activity and keep ZG near $33 by 2026-10-01, whereas a reaffirmed higher-for-longer stance would likely pressure transaction-sensitive platforms and pull ZG toward $33.00.
- Wed5Aug
Q2 2026 earnings on 2026-08-05 will update the trajectory of traffic, Premier Agent spend, and early monetization from AI-powered search and recommendations. Demonstrated uplift in engagement, lead quality, and ARPA could support a move toward $38.00 by 2026-08-19, while continued margin pressure or weak AI payback metrics could pull ZG down toward $38.00.
- Wed15Jul
As the NAR commission settlement structure is implemented around 2026-07-15, investors will reassess Zillow’s monetization model and partner economics. If ZG demonstrates resilient Premier Agent demand and growing consumer traffic, the stock could grind toward $41.00 by 2026-07-29; if lead conversion or agent ad budgets prove more sensitive to commission changes, ZG could re-rate down toward $41.00.
- Wed6May
Actual outcome: Bear · $36.92 at outcome
Zillow reported Q1 earnings that met EPS estimates alongside 18% year-over-year revenue growth, driven by strength in rentals and mortgages. However, the stock fell 17.6% as the company disclosed a 3% decline in average monthly unique users to 220 million, raising concerns about top-of-funnel platform health. The sell-off was further compounded by the announcement of a securities class action investigation into allegations of materially misleading business information.
Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-05-06 will be the first detailed check on whether Zillow can translate mid-teens revenue growth into sustainable profitability after the sharp post-Q4 drawdown. A clean print with improving operating margin could push ZG toward $47.00 by 2026-05-20, while another EPS miss or weak 2026 outlook revision would likely send the stock back toward $47.00.
- Sun1Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $40.47 at outcome
Zillow's attempt to trigger a relief rally through a massive $1.25 billion share buyback and AI-focused investor events failed to offset broader macro pressures, as the stock fell below the $41.00 bear floor by the run date. The anticipated stabilization in the housing rate outlook did not materialize strongly enough to drive the stock toward bull targets, despite the company's aggressive capital return program.
The oversold technicals (RSI 16.1) suggest asymmetric upside. A stabilization in long-term rates or a perceived dovish shift by the Fed, possibly influenced by President Trump's typical push for lower rates, could trigger a sharp relief rally in the rate-sensitive housing sector. Target is aggressive due to the oversold condition.
