TLHiShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF
The schedule
- Wed23Sep
The September FOMC meeting and updated Dot Plot will be pivotal for the long end of the curve. With the Fed Funds rate at 3.63%, markets will seek confirmation of further terminal rate reductions. A dovish shift could propel TLH to $103.50, whereas a hawkish pause to combat sticky inflation under current trade policies would test the $98.50 floor.
- Thu15Oct
TLH's Q3 earnings results and distribution update will provide fresh metrics on portfolio yield and duration exposure. If rate cuts have successfully stabilized the curve without reviving inflation, strong NAV performance could lift the fund to $105.50. A re-acceleration of yields would conversely press NAV down to $101.50.
- Sun15Nov
Late-year Federal budget negotiations introduce significant fiscal risk. If the Trump administration and Congress face gridlock, safe-haven flows could briefly bid up Treasuries, pushing TLH to $107.50. However, the prevailing risk of credit downgrades or unmitigated supply forces a strong bear case, with potential drops to $102.50.
Past
- Wed5Aug
The Q3 Treasury Refunding announcement will clarify the supply pipeline for 10-20 year bonds. Under President Trump, elevated deficit spending may require larger long-end issuance, potentially crowding the market. If issuance is lighter than feared, TLH could rally past its 200-day SMA to $105.00, but heavy supply could easily trigger a retracement to $100.50.
- Wed15Jul
As an exchange-traded fund, TLH's Q2 earnings results and dividend yield distribution update will reflect the underlying portfolio's generation of income amid shifting duration dynamics. A bullish scenario assumes a stable distribution yield and favorable rate momentum pushing NAV to $103.50, while a bearish reset of yield expectations would drag the fund to $99.00.
- Fri12Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $98.47 at outcome
Price reached or fell below bear floor ($97.00) at outcome date.
The May CPI report and subsequent Fed communications will set the tone for the 10-20 year Treasury curve. With the Trump administration's fiscal policies in focus and unemployment at 4.3%, signs of cooling inflation would drive yields lower, helping TLH rally toward $101.50. Conversely, sticky core prices would force long-end yields higher, pushing TLH down to its $97.00 support.