SSTISoundThinking, Inc.
The Read
9% on strong AI-driven guidance in Q4 2025 and about 1% post-Q1 2026 earnings despite revenue declines.
The schedule
- Wed30Sep
The potential entry or acquisition by a major defense/tech competitor could significantly impact the company's market position and revenue. This event is crucial as it may lead to increased competition and a potential loss of market share. The company's ability to respond to this threat will be a key factor in determining the stock's performance.
- Thu15Oct
Regulatory scrutiny of acoustic technologies could have a mixed impact on the company's operations and compliance costs. This event is important as it may affect the company's ability to operate efficiently and meet regulatory requirements. While there is potential for increased costs and delays, the company's response to these challenges could influence the stock price.
- Thu12Nov
The Q3 2026 earnings release will provide insight into the company's financial performance and future guidance. This event is particularly important as it will highlight revenue growth and cost management strategies, which are key drivers for investor confidence. Strong earnings results and positive guidance are expected to have a significant impact on the stock price, potentially leading to an upward movement.
- Tue1Dec
The launch of a new public safety software product is expected to expand the company's market share and open up new revenue streams. This event is significant as it represents a strategic move to enhance the company's offerings and meet growing demand in the public safety sector. A successful product launch is likely to generate positive market reactions and support the stock price.
- Sun31Jan
The outcome of the Chicago contract renewal or rebid is a major revenue driver for the company. This event is critical as it could significantly impact the company's financial performance and future prospects. A successful renewal or favorable rebid outcome is expected to boost revenue and earnings, which could lead to a substantial increase in the stock price.
- Sun14Feb
- Fri14May
- Fri13Aug
Past
- Fri14Aug
Actual outcome: Bear
SoundThinking reported a quarterly loss of $0.37 per share, matching the estimate, but revised its full-year revenue guidance downward to $99.0 million to $100.0 million and lowered its adjusted EBITDA margin guidance to 8% to 9%. These downward revisions signaled weaker-than-expected performance and reduced growth prospects, leading to a decline in the stock price.
Q2 2026 results will show whether SoundThinking is stabilizing revenue after recent contract noise, and whether early federal and municipal funding activity is translating into bookings for its AI-driven safety platform.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $7.48 at outcome
The stock remained completely flat during the catalyst window, as no definitive news regarding Congressional 'law and order' appropriations materialized to drive a breakout in either direction. Shortly after the outcome date, SoundThinking announced its new SafetySmart Field Agent AI layer, which likely helped support the stock's subsequent drift higher by August, but the immediate legislative catalyst yielded a mixed, muted reaction.
Congressional budget activity around 'law & order' and public safety technology funding could influence how much incremental federal and state money is available for cities to spend on SoundThinking’s gunshot detection and analytics suite.
- Fri15May
Actual outcome: Bull · $6.78 at outcome
SoundThinking reported in-line Q1 EPS alongside a 15% year-over-year revenue decline, which was primarily driven by a tough comparison against a delayed NYPD contract renewal in the prior year. The stock rallied because management reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $109 million to $111 million, reassuring investors of its underlying 6% growth trajectory despite seasonally high costs. Furthermore, continued strategic investments in the SafePointe business and the appointment of David Jochim as SVP of TechnoLogic and Professional Services bolstered confidence in the company's long-term expansion plans.
Q1 2026 results will be the first checkpoint after Q4 2025’s upbeat FY2026 guidance, testing SoundThinking’s ability to sustain ~6% revenue growth and margin improvement while managing costs tied to the Chicago contract controversy. A clean quarter with stable ARR and improving Adjusted EBITDA margins could move the stock toward $7.20, while any sign of contract churn or margin slippage could push it down toward $7.20.
- Tue31Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $6.55 at outcome
SoundThinking provided broader financial guidance, targeting $110M in revenue and 17% EBITDA while highlighting the expansion of its AI-driven safety suite. However, the lack of a definitive update regarding the critical Chicago contract renewal left the primary catalyst unresolved, resulting in a muted price reaction as investors weighed the positive long-term outlook against lingering contract uncertainty.
Final determination on the extension of the Chicago ShotSpotter contract, a major revenue contributor facing local political opposition.
- Mon30Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $7.78 at outcome
SoundThinking exceeded revenue estimates and issued FY2026 guidance projecting 6% revenue growth and expanded Adjusted EBITDA margins of 16-18%. The stock initially rallied to the bull target as the market reacted positively to the company's ability to demonstrate margin improvement and a clear path to $110 million in ARR despite a quarterly EPS loss.
Market looks past negative TTM revenue growth if the company can demonstrate continued net income margin improvement and issues conservative, achievable guidance that incorporates potential contract risks.
