RMAXRE/MAX Holdings, Inc.
The Read
RE/MAX historically sees a median absolute stock move of about 9%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
The projected window for finalizing the merger with The Real Brokerage. Successful approval locks in the buyout price and initiates delisting, while rejection or regulatory blocks would drastically re-rate shares lower.
- Sat30Jan
If the merger remains pending, Q3 results will serve as a proxy for standalone health. However, price action will stay tightly bound to the buyout terms assuming the transaction remains intact without structural amendments.
- Sun14Feb
Expected Q4 earnings date. By this point, the merger should have been finalized; if delayed this long, investors will heavily scrutinize standalone guidance, balance sheet stability, and deal termination fees.
- Fri7May
First quarter 2027 results. A continuation as a public entity this far into 2027 would strongly suggest the Real Brokerage merger is facing existential threats, shifting focus entirely back to organic growth and standalone cash burn.
Past
- Wed16Sep
The FOMC rate decision poses secondary risks. While the stock is heavily driven by M&A arbitrage, any severe rate disruptions could impact the acquirer's financing or damage standalone real estate fundamentals if the deal collapses.
- Tue4Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $10.77 at outcome
RE/MAX reported Q2 2026 revenue of $68.5 million, missing estimates of $72.8 million, while EPS met expectations at -$0.48. However, the earnings results were largely a fundamental non-event as shares remained anchored to the pending acquisition by The Real Brokerage. The stock rallied 11% as the companies reminded stockholders of the deadline to elect their form of merger consideration, keeping the market focused on the deal's progression toward closing.
Q2 earnings are expected to be a fundamental non-event as shares remain firmly anchored to the pending acquisition by The Real Brokerage. The primary focus will be on regulatory milestones and confirmation of the closing timeline.
- Tue23Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $9.86 at outcome
The May National Housing Report revealed a 7.9% month-over-month increase in U.S. home sales, marking the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Although sales were slightly down year-over-year due to ongoing supply constraints, the strong sequential momentum during the critical spring transaction season supported the bull case, driving the stock past the $10.15 bull target in the weeks following the release.
Release of existing home sales data covering the critical spring transaction season, a key leading indicator for RE/MAX's franchise and agent commission revenues.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bull · $9.80 at outcome
RE/MAX met Q1 EPS estimates but missed revenue expectations, while forward guidance took a backseat to major strategic news. The stock reacted positively due to the announcement of a pending merger with The Real Brokerage Inc. This acquisition agreement provided a definitive buyout catalyst, driving bullish sentiment that completely overshadowed the underlying quarterly performance.
RMAX reports Q1 2026 earnings as the market assesses whether recent stock appreciation is justified against a -5.69% YoY revenue contraction.
- Wed18Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.85 at outcome
The FOMC's interest rate guidance failed to provide the aggressive easing signal required to catalyze the housing sector, overshadowing positive company-specific news such as the Zillow transparency partnership and the acquisition of a large Rhode Island brokerage. With the Fed signaling a more cautious approach to the 2026 easing cycle, the stock remained pressured near its bear floor as persistent high rates continue to constrain real estate transaction volumes.
- Thu19Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $6.43 at outcome
Although RE/MAX beat Q4 EPS estimates ($0.30 vs. $0.28), total revenue declined 1.8% year-over-year and organic revenue also contracted, signaling persistent top-line pressure. The stock fell below the bear floor as investors reacted to a weak January housing report showing a 32% monthly plunge in sales, which heightened concerns over the 2026 outlook despite management's efforts toward cost discipline and leadership reorganization.
