ORGOOrganogenesis Holdings Inc.
The Read
Organogenesis historically experiences a median absolute stock move of about 28%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
The anticipated CMS proposed rule affecting advanced wound care reimbursement in late 2026 is a pivotal regulatory overhang. From an assumed base near $2.10, a rule that preserves or modestly improves reimbursement terms for ORGO’s portfolio could allow the stock to recover toward $2.70, while any meaningful cuts, tighter utilization criteria, or unfavorable coding changes could drive a repricing down toward $2.70.
- Tue1Dec
Into late 2026, Organogenesis could become the subject of renewed strategic review or M&A speculation given its specialized wound care portfolio and depressed valuation. From a base near $1.90, credible interest or a transaction at a premium could move the stock toward $2.40, whereas faded rumors, an unfavorably priced deal, or dilutive transaction structure would likely leave shares closer to $1.60.
- Sun14Feb
- Thu6May
Q3 2026 earnings and the first look at 2027 expectations will show how ORGO is positioned after both the 2026 execution year and the CMS proposal. From a depressed base around $1.40, a print that demonstrates resilient revenue, stable margins despite any reimbursement changes, and a credible 2027 growth framework could lift shares toward $1.90, while evidence of sustained pressure or a cautious 2027 guide would likely push the stock toward $1.90.
Past
- Thu13Aug
Actual outcome: Bear
Organogenesis reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.28, meeting estimates, but revealed a sharp year-over-year decline in revenue. The stock fell well below the bear floor as the market reacted negatively to ongoing headwinds from CMS coverage and payment changes impacting the skin substitute market, which overshadowed management's notes on sequential improvement.
The Q2 2026 earnings release will test whether the strong Q4 2025 recovery was the start of a sustainable trend or a one-off rebound. From an assumed base around $2.60, a print that confirms sequential growth, stable gross margins, and disciplined SG&A could push ORGO toward $3.00, whereas another guidance wobble, volume softness in key wound care lines, or renewed margin compression would likely drag the stock toward $3.00.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $2.45 at outcome
Although the stock saw a muted 1.7% move through the July outcome date, shares subsequently collapsed to the bear floor by mid-August. The sell-off was driven by severe headwinds from adverse Medicare policy changes impacting core skin substitute products, which prompted Organogenesis to guide for a massive 45-52% year-over-year revenue decline in 2026.
Through mid-2026, Organogenesis is expected to update the market on expanded indications and commercial traction for its advanced wound care and regenerative products. From a base of $2.00, successful uptake in new indications and evidence of repeat ordering patterns could lift the stock toward $2.60, while slower-than-expected adoption, pricing pushback from payers, or channel friction would risk a drift toward $2.60.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $2.48 at outcome
Organogenesis reported Q1 2026 earnings with EPS exactly meeting estimates at $0.28, though the company experienced a sharp year-over-year revenue decline. Management attributed this drop to significant disruption in the skin substitute market following Medicare policy changes and CMS commentary. The combination of in-line bottom-line results and concerning revenue headwinds led to a muted market reaction, with the stock trading relatively flat and falling just 2.0% by the outcome date.
Q1 2026 earnings will be the first look at how management executes against the reset 2026 guidance that drove the post–Q4 2025 sell-off. At a base price of $2.39, a clean beat with credible reaffirmation (or improvement) of full-year revenue and margin guidance could support a move toward $2.80, while any sign that Q4 was a high-water mark or that growth is slowing versus the 78% YoY revenue comp would likely send the stock toward $2.80.
- Wed1Apr
Actual outcome: Bear · $2.60 at outcome
Despite announcing positive clinical trial results for PuraPly AM and a successful FDA meeting to file a BLA for ReNu, the stock broke below the $2.60 DCF floor. The market focused on overarching fundamental headwinds, specifically a projected 25-38% revenue decline tied to short-term reimbursement risks, which overshadowed the pipeline progress and kept the stock in bearish territory.
Market tests the DCF floor of $2.60 amid oversold RSI conditions.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $2.87 at outcome
Despite reporting record revenue and meeting EPS estimates of $0.28 for Q4 2025, Organogenesis shares fell 22.4% following the earnings release. The sharp decline indicates that the market reacted negatively to the company's full-year 2026 guidance or underlying details discussed during the earnings call, which overshadowed the top-line results.
Release of Q4 2025 results, typically a strong seasonal quarter. Focus on profitability, balance sheet strength, and the crucial 2026 revenue and EPS guidance. Market's high-multiple valuation requires aggressive growth projections.
