NEXNNexxen International Ltd.
The Read
Nexxen's partnership announcements historically triggered median stock moves of about 12%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Expected rollouts of competing AI-driven programmatic or Smart TV home screen solutions by rival ad-tech platforms.
- Tue3Nov
Peak deployment of political ad spend through programmatic and Connected TV networks heading into the Midterm elections.
- Fri15Jan
Management presentation outlining post-election revenue replacement strategies and long-term AI integrations.
- Wed10Feb
Q3 financial results and critical Q4 guidance reflecting the culmination of election-year ad spend.
- Sun14Feb
Q4 earnings report covering the final election windfall and providing crucial FY2027 baseline guidance.
- Wed12May
First quarter results in a non-election year, testing the company's standalone organic growth rate.
Past
- Wed12Aug
Actual outcome: Bull
Nexxen reported record Q2 results, meeting EPS estimates of -$0.09, driven by all-time high connected TV (CTV) revenue and growth in mobile and data products. The stock remained above the bull target as the company raised its full-year guidance for Contribution ex-TAC and programmatic revenue for the third time this year and announced key executive appointments to scale its enterprise growth.
Q2 earnings report detailing the impact of The Trade Desk's Ventura Ecosystem integration and home screen ad solution traction.
- Sat1Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $10.90 at outcome
The stock reached the bull target as Nexxen was highlighted as an industry frontrunner poised to benefit from a surge in digital marketing and artificial intelligence. Additionally, the launch of a new DSP onboarding capability to accelerate first-party data activation helped build positive momentum ahead of its upcoming Q2 earnings report, driving the stock higher despite broader industry headwinds.
Potential regulatory decisions in the US or EU targeting programmatic data collection and targeted advertising practices.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $8.47 at outcome
Despite Nexxen raising its full-year 2026 Contribution ex-TAC and programmatic revenue guidance and launching new AI platform integrations during its Investor Day, the stock reaction was muted. Shares drifted lower by a modest 2.5% to close at $8.47, indicating that the positive guidance updates and product announcements failed to generate significant new buying momentum and may have already been priced in.
The Cannes Lions Festival acts as a seasonal catalyst for ad-tech partnerships. Following anticipated Q1 momentum from our base of $8.70, new agency commitments to Nexxen's Smart TV home screen solutions could propel the stock to $9.30, though lackluster footprint could see a slip back to $8.10.
- Wed13May
Actual outcome: Bull · $8.34 at outcome
Nexxen reported record Q1 results, including record Contribution ex-TAC, programmatic revenue, and CTV revenue, while meeting EPS estimates of $0.19. The stock rallied 9.6% as the company raised its full-year guidance and highlighted accelerated adoption of its Nexxen TV Home Screen across major platforms like The Trade Desk, TCL FFALCON, and TiVo, signaling strong momentum in its high-margin segments.
Nexxen faces a critical Q1 2026 print to prove that its high-margin CTV momentum and recent Trade Desk integration can reverse the 10.3% YoY revenue contraction. With the stock near $8.08, an expected move around $0.49 is anticipated, though we set the bull target at $8.70 if guidance signals accelerating platform adoption, while a miss drives shares to $7.20.
- Wed4Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $7.38 at outcome
Nexxen met EPS estimates while delivering on key growth catalysts, specifically the launch of an industry-first Smart TV home screen ad solution and integration with The Trade Desk's Ventura Ecosystem. These strategic wins in high-margin CTV channels, supported by an active share repurchase program, drove a 10.5% price surge as the market prioritized the company's expanded distribution and AI-resilient growth path.
Release of Q4 results and crucial full-year 2026 guidance. The market needs to see stabilization in Net Income and a clear path to high-margin revenue growth, primarily from CTV, to justify a multiple expansion from the ultra-low P/E of 4.4.
