LUNRIntuitive Machines, Inc.
Intuitive Machines, Inc. (LUNR) designs and builds spacecraft systems for NASA and commercial clients, focusing on lunar and deep-space missions. The next catalyst is Nov 8, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to convert its $1.1 billion backlog into revenue and sustain margins amid rising costs.
- Revenue fell 9.2% YoY to $488.34M, with net loss widening to $115.86M.
- Free cash flow remains negative at -$257.49M, and the company is still burning through equity.
- The stock is now trading at a -23.7% net margin, with debt-to-equity at -0.44x.
The Read
LUNR's stock initially stabilized after a Q4 2025 earnings miss due to a $180 million NASA contract and $1 billion backlog, then surged about 26% on IM-2 launch confirmation tied to Artemis II success and NASA lunar mission commitments.
The schedule
- Sun8Nov
The earnings report will test the company's ability to deliver on its lunar mission progress and revenue guidance, unlike the last print where the guidance was overly optimistic and led to a sharp pullback.
- Thu10Dec
The potential capital raise or debt refinancing will test the company's ability to secure additional funding, which will be critical for maintaining its lunar mission timeline and operational momentum.
- Tue9Feb
This report will test the company's ability to show progress on its lunar mission and secure new contracts, which will be critical for validating its long-term growth narrative.
- Tue11May
The report will test the company's ability to show sustained progress on its lunar mission and secure additional funding, which will be critical for maintaining investor confidence.
- Mon9Aug
This report will test the company's ability to deliver on its long-term vision and secure new contracts, which will be critical for validating its growth potential.
Past
- Wed30Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $14.71 at outcome
The stock rose 3.3% following the IM-2 Lunar Landing Outcome & Initial Mission Data Release, driven by positive mission data that validated operational repeatability. The outcome aligned with the bull case, as the price moved toward the bull target, reflecting market confidence in the mission's success and its implications for future operations.
The highly anticipated IM-2 lunar mission represents a pure binary catalyst. Success validates operational repeatability, whereas failure poses severe existential timeline risks.
- Sun9Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $16.48 at outcome
Intuitive Machines reported worse-than-expected Q2 results, missing Wall Street's sales targets and posting weaker adjusted EBITDA, while EPS met estimates at -$0.25. Despite the company highlighting a record $1.8 billion backlog for its expanding lunar programs, the stock declined because the top-line miss and ongoing equity dilution from recent capital raises overshadowed its long-term growth outlook.
Q2 2026 earnings release. The street is highly focused on backlog visibility and any commentary on adjusted EBITDA positivity as the launch cadence accelerates.
- Sat30May
Actual outcome: Bear · $22.72 at outcome
The stock fell 48.1% from the event date to the outcome date, reflecting a sharp decline following the Lunar Mission Launch Window & Pre-Launch Readiness Update. The price reaction was driven by negative sentiment surrounding the event, with news indicating a significant drop in stock value, suggesting concerns about the mission's readiness and broader market dynamics. The stock did not reach the bull target, aligning with the bear classification.
- Thu28May
Actual outcome: Bear · $23.36 at outcome
The stock plummeted 48.9%, breaking well below the bear floor, after Intuitive Machines lost NASA's Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) contract to competitors. The massive sell-off was further exacerbated by news that the company needed to raise additional cash, alongside broader sector weakness following a Blue Origin launch pad explosion.
- Wed15Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $28.97 at outcome
The IM-2 mission schedule was reinforced by the successful Artemis II mission and broader sector momentum following SpaceX's confidential IPO filing. This confirmation, alongside NASA's commitment to a series of robotic lunar landings, allowed the stock to clear the $23.99 pivot level and trend toward the bull target.
- Thu19Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $20.31 at outcome
Intuitive Machines reported Q4 EPS of -$0.34, exactly meeting consensus estimates. The stock rallied 7.4% to surpass the $19.50 bull target, driven by strong 2026 forward guidance and positive operational updates that reinforced investor confidence in the company's contract pipeline.
