LOCOEL Pollo LOCO Holdings, Inc.
El Pollo LOCO Holdings, Inc. (LOCO) operates a fast-casual restaurant chain specializing in spicy chicken tenders and regional flavors. The next catalyst is Nov 6, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s ability to sustain margins amid rising input costs and competitive pricing pressures.
- The company reported $107.55M in revenue for the 12 months ended July 1, 2026, with a net margin of 32.9% (TTM).
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $291.08M, and the company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.18x.
- A $40M share repurchase authorization was announced in May 2026, signaling confidence in the balance sheet.
The Read
1% post-Q1 2026 despite strong results due to profit-taking near highs.
The schedule
- Fri6Nov
The earnings release will test LOCO's ability to manage rising input costs and maintain profitability amid supply chain pressures, which could impact margins and guide for future quarters.
- Fri15Jan
The strategic outlook will test the company's ability to outline clear growth initiatives and operational improvements, which could influence investor sentiment and long-term valuation.
- Sun14Feb
The earnings release will test whether LOCO can sustain its recent revenue growth and manage rising input costs, differing from the last print where guidance was cut due to supply chain pressures.
- Fri7May
This release will test the ability to maintain unit economics and expand franchisee profitability, unlike the last print where the focus was on cost containment rather than growth.
- Thu5Aug
The release will test the ability to maintain unit economics and expand franchisee profitability, unlike the last print where the focus was on cost containment rather than growth.
Past
- Thu15Oct
Actual outcome: Bull
The stock closed above the bull target of $15.40, reflecting strong investor confidence despite a short-term pullback. Positive strategic developments, including a major partnership announcement and improved guidance on margin stability, drove the price higher. These factors aligned with the bull case, reinforcing long-term value despite initial volatility.
A broader checkpoint for consumer discretionary spending under President Trump's prevailing economic policies and rate environment.
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $14.10 at outcome
The stock fell 2.8% following the California Wage & Labor Regulation Developments, which introduced potential cost pressures for fast-casual operators. The news raised concerns about increased labor expenses and franchisor liability, leading to a bearish reaction. While the price rebounded to $15.95 by 2026-10-20, the initial decline confirmed the bear scenario as the stock fell below the bear floor of $14.20.
Potential legislative updates or franchisor joint-liability rulings in California directly impacting fast-casual cost structures.
- Thu6Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $15.46 at outcome
El Pollo Loco met or slightly beat Q2 earnings estimates, reporting higher same-store sales, improved restaurant-level margins, and a raised full-year sales and adjusted EBITDA outlook. Despite these strong fundamental results and evidence that the company successfully navigated recent fast-food wage hikes, the stock experienced a negative post-earnings reaction, falling 5.6% to breach the bear floor.
Fiscal Q2 results will highlight the initial margin impact of recent fast-food wage hikes and El Pollo Loco's pricing power to offset them.
- Tue28Jul
Actual outcome: Mixed · $16.52 at outcome
El Pollo Loco shares saw a muted reaction to its franchise development update, rising just 1.3% by the outcome date. While the company subsequently reported a Q2 earnings beat of $0.30 per share versus the $0.29 estimate on August 6, the lack of major expansion catalysts or significant forward guidance kept the stock range-bound and unable to reach the bull target.
El Pollo Loco provides an update on unit expansion, particularly outside of California where labor costs are less punitive.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $16.25 at outcome
El Pollo Loco shares rallied well past the bull target, driven by positive menu developments that overshadowed broader trade policy concerns. The company announced the return of a highly requested menu item, BBQ Black Beans, and introduced new summer offerings including Loaded Quesadillas and Chatacoffee, boosting investor confidence in near-term traffic and sales momentum.
Assessment of Trump Administration trade tariffs and their structural impact on poultry and produce supply chains for the restaurant sector.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bear · $13.30 at outcome
El Pollo Loco reported strong Q1 2026 results, delivering EPS of $0.28 and highlighting continued momentum with same-store sales growth and margin expansion. However, with the stock trading near its 52-week high heading into the print, the positive results were largely priced in. This led to a 'sell the news' reaction, causing shares to fall 5% toward the bear floor as investors took profits despite the solid fundamental performance.
Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-05-06 will test whether El Pollo Loco’s value-focused menu and recent traffic gains can sustain near a $14.01 share price that is close to its 52-week high. A clean print with stable margins and same-store sales should support a move toward $14.75, while any slowdown in traffic or margin compression at this valuation could drive a reset toward $14.75 by 2026-05-13.
- Fri13Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $11.03 at outcome
El Pollo Loco met EPS expectations of $0.25 and bolstered investor confidence by announcing a bold lineup of new menu tests and a value-focused 'Protein Packed' menu. These strategic initiatives addressed the market's focus on Same-Store Sales and margin management, successfully driving the stock price to the $11.00 bull target.
Release of Q4 results and full-year 2026 guidance. Focus on Same-Store Sales (SSS) and margin management during the critical holiday quarter. Market will assess if cost control initiatives successfully offset inflation.
