JACKJack in the Box Inc.
Jack in the Box Inc. sells fast-casual dining and convenience food through a network of restaurants and drive-thru locations, with a focus on value menus and limited-time offers. The next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — Biglari Capital Activist Proxy & Strategic Alternatives Push, which will test the company’s ability to navigate activist pressure and potential restructuring.
- Free cash flow (TTM): $180.31M
- Net margin (TTM): 3.4%
- Revenue growth YoY: -6.7%
The Read
Jack in the Box historically sees median absolute moves of about 12%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Expected escalation of Biglari Capital's activist campaign demanding asset spin-offs, refranchising, or a formal buyout process.
- Sat14Nov
Quarterly earnings report testing whether recent menu innovations and activist-driven cost cuts are successfully flowing through to EBITDA.
- Tue19Jan
Assessment of the company's progress in renegotiating covenants or extending maturities on its outsized debt load.
- Wed17Feb
Full-year results and initial forward guidance for 2027, focusing on capital expenditure plans and top-line growth.
- Wed5May
First quarter fiscal 2027 earnings assessing the traction of digital loyalty rollouts and winter traffic comparables.
- Wed4Aug
Mid-year check on franchisee profitability, net unit additions, and peak summer consumer demand patterns.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Unveiling of the 100-day strategic roadmap by the recently appointed CEO, focusing on cost cuts and operational stabilization.
- Tue18Aug
Actual outcome: Bull
Despite reporting a Q3 revenue miss and a 1.1% decline in same-store sales, Jack in the Box managed to beat earnings estimates. The stock rallied past the bull target, driven by optimism surrounding the appointment of veteran Taco Bell executive Taylor Montgomery as the new President to spearhead brand strategy and turnaround efforts.
Market evaluation of Jack in the Box's promotional efficacy and margin resilience amid aggressive summer discounting in the fast-food sector.
- Wed13May
Actual outcome: Bear · $11.17 at outcome
Jack in the Box reported lower same-store sales and acknowledged that Q2 results missed expectations, despite EPS meeting estimates at $2.35. The company also announced an abrupt leadership transition, replacing its CEO. The combination of persistent headwinds—specifically declining same-store sales and pressured margins—along with the sudden executive shakeup overshadowed management's commentary about improving Q3 trends, driving the stock well below the bear floor.
Jack in the Box reported lower same-store sales and acknowledged that Q2 results missed expectations, despite EPS meeting estimates at $2.35. The company also announced an abrupt leadership transition, replacing its CEO. The combination of persistent headwinds—specifically declining same-store sales and pressured margins—along with the sudden executive shakeup overshadowed management's commentary about improving Q3 trends, driving the stock well below the bear floor.
- Tue7Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $12.65 at outcome
Despite concerns over a competitor value menu war and broader sector pressure, Jack in the Box shares rallied 15.4% through the outcome date. The upward momentum was supported by strategic leadership changes, including a board refreshment and the recent appointment of a new Chief Marketing Officer, alongside aggressive promotional pushes like the Smashed Jack Sliders Munchie Meal to drive consumer demand.
Despite concerns over a competitor value menu war and broader sector pressure, Jack in the Box shares rallied 15.4% through the outcome date. The upward momentum was supported by strategic leadership changes, including a board refreshment and the recent appointment of a new Chief Marketing Officer, alongside aggressive promotional pushes like the Smashed Jack Sliders Munchie Meal to drive consumer demand.
- Wed18Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $15.18 at outcome
While EPS met estimates, the stock plummeted due to a significant 6.7% decline in same-store sales and shrinking margins driven by higher food and packaging costs. This fundamental deterioration, coupled with an aggressive activist campaign from Biglari Capital following the earnings miss on key operating metrics, drove the price well below the bear floor as investors focused on the company's inability to maintain market share and manage its leveraged balance sheet.
While EPS met estimates, the stock plummeted due to a significant 6.7% decline in same-store sales and shrinking margins driven by higher food and packaging costs. This fundamental deterioration, coupled with an aggressive activist campaign from Biglari Capital following the earnings miss on key operating metrics, drove the price well below the bear floor as investors focused on the company's inability to maintain market share and manage its leveraged balance sheet.
