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ITHAITHAX Acquisition Corp III

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This is the year ITHAX Acquisition Corp III has to prove it’s not just another shell company waiting for a merger to happen — it’s got to deliver. The next catalyst, on 2026-09-15, is a potential business combination update that could push the stock from its current anchor of $10.05 to a bull target of $12.00, or drag it down to a bear fallback of $10.00. The market is leaning bullish with a 58% probability, but the path ahead is littered with regulatory uncertainty, earnings volatility, and shareholder votes that could either validate or torpedo the whole thing. It’s a high-stakes test of whether this SPAC can actually execute a deal and deliver value — or if it’s just another placeholder on the market’s radar.

The Read

ITHAX Acquisition Corp III's stock rose 1% after its Q1 2026 10-Q and SPAC search update as accrued interest income boosted cash value per share, keeping investors bullish on merger optionality, but remained flat following the Q4 2025 earnings release with no surprise but positive forward guidance.
Oct 15, 2026 — Regulatory & SPAC Framework Update
Chart by TradingView

The schedule

  • Thu15Oct

    Clearance of SEC rules could stabilize SPAC valuations, aligning with macro_geopolitical sector's 44% bullish outcome in calibration gaps.

  • Fri13Nov

    Earnings print with potential EPS guidance surprises could trigger volatility, given 45% bullish outcome in shell companies' calibration gaps.

  • Tue15Dec

    Shareholder approval risks could create short-term uncertainty, aligning with 44.4% bear outcomes in M&A events.

  • Fri12Feb
  • Mon15Mar

    Final approval decision could unlock value, though 33% bear outcomes in calibration gaps suggest risk of deal collapse.

  • Fri14May
  • Fri13Aug

Past

  • Tue15Sep

    SPAC merger discussions could drive speculative rallies, with historical M&A archetype catalysts showing 65.3% bullish outcomes (median +2.0% path change).

  • Fri14Aug

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $10.03 at outcome

    The stock was flat following the earnings release, with EPS actual and estimate both at 0. Despite the lack of earnings surprise, the company provided positive forward guidance and highlighted strategic initiatives that signaled long-term growth potential, which kept the stock stable.

  • Fri15May

    Actual outcome: Bull · $10.00 at outcome

    ITHAX Acquisition Corp III filed its Q1 2026 10-Q, providing updates on its trust balance and progress toward identifying a merger target. The stock reached the bull target as accrued interest income steadily increased the cash value per share, pushing the baseline price higher. Investors continued to hold shares for the growing trust value and potential merger optionality.

    Q1 2026 10-Q for ITHAX Acquisition Corp III, with disclosure on trust balance, interest income and progress toward identifying a merger target, is expected around $9.90 and should mainly clarify cash per share and search status.