HOGHarley-Davidson, Inc.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. sells motorcycles, premium accessories, and related services, with a focus on the North American market. The next catalyst is Oct 29, 2026 — Harley-Davidson, Inc. To Present at Citi's 2026 Global Conference, where the company will test its progress on the "Back to the Bricks" strategy and its ability to reposition for growth amid a shrinking motorcycle market.
- Revenue fell 13.1% YoY to $4.30B in 2026, with net income of $589.51M and free cash flow of $394.55M (TTM).
- Net margin stands at 13.7%, with debt-to-equity of 0.94x.
- Free cash flow has been a key driver of shareholder returns, though revenue growth remains a challenge.
The Read
7% amid mixed Q1 results and optimism for a new turnaround plan.
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
The conference presentation will test the company's ability to communicate its strategic priorities and long-term vision, particularly in the context of evolving market conditions and competitive pressures.
- Tue3Nov
The earnings release will test whether HOG can sustain its recent momentum through improved margins and demand in the motorcycle segment, unlike the last report where guidance was cut due to supply chain issues.
- Fri15Jan
The model year reveal will test the company's ability to generate strong dealer orders and signal confidence in its new product lineup, which could drive demand in the coming quarters.
- Tue9Feb
This report will test the company's ability to deliver on its full-year 2027 guidance, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and potential macroeconomic headwinds.
- Tue11May
The Q1 2027 report will test the company's ability to maintain its momentum in a challenging macro environment, with a focus on demand in emerging markets and cost control.
- Wed4Aug
This report will test the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory, particularly in the context of global trade dynamics and potential shifts in consumer preferences.
Past
- Mon5Oct
Actual outcome: Bull · $26.89 at outcome
HOG's stock rose 2.6% following the Trump Administration's trade policy updates, as the market interpreted the new tariffs as a potential boost to domestic manufacturing and export margins. The positive sentiment was driven by expectations of reduced international supply chain disruptions and improved pricing power, aligning with the bull case. The price movement exceeded the initial bull target, reflecting strong investor confidence in the policy's impact on HOG's long-term prospects.
Anticipated regulatory and trade policy updates from the Trump Administration, carrying high implications for HOG's international supply chain and export margins.
- Wed5Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $26.09 at outcome
Harley-Davidson reported Q2 EPS of $0.23, exactly meeting analyst estimates. The in-line earnings results and ongoing traction of the 'Back to the Bricks' turnaround strategy reassured investors, driving the stock past the $25.50 bull target to close at $26.09 on the outcome date and continue its rally into mid-August.
Harley-Davidson reports Q2 results, marking a critical test of CEO Artie Starrs' 'Back to the Bricks' strategic turnaround and lower-priced model traction.
- Wed15Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $27.82 at outcome
Harley-Davidson shares surged past the bull target as optimism built ahead of a strong Q2 earnings report, where the company delivered an EPS beat of $0.75 versus the $0.62 consensus. The rally was driven by management raising full-year guidance on the back of robust North American retail motorcycle sales and improved dealer inventory health, which overshadowed concerns regarding higher raw material costs and plunging revenues in the H-D Financial Services arm.
An interim update on the health of HOG's financing arm as the market digests rising unemployment rates and consumer loan delinquency trends.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $25.53 at outcome
Harley-Davidson reported a Q1 EPS miss ($0.22 vs $0.34 expected) driven by tariff pressures and restructuring costs, though retail motorcycle sales increased. Concurrently, the company unveiled its 'Back to the Bricks' strategic plan under new CEO Artie Starrs, focusing on lower-priced models and dealer network revitalization. The competing forces of near-term margin compression and optimism around the new turnaround strategy resulted in a muted, mixed price reaction.
- Tue31Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $22.86 at outcome
Harley-Davidson shares rallied past the $19.50 bull target to reach $20.86, despite a lack of specific public disclosures regarding the H-D Financial Services credit loss assessment. The upward momentum was supported by positive sentiment from notable insider buying by Representative Tim Moore and the stock's continued appeal as a high-yield dividend investment, indicating that the market largely shrugged off consumer credit concerns.
- Tue10Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $19.70 at outcome
Harley-Davidson reported a significantly wider Q4 loss of $2.44 per share as revenues plummeted 28% year-over-year due to slumping motorcycle sales and tariff impacts. The stock fell as management's 2026 guidance signaled a 'reset year' with continued earnings pressure, further exacerbated by a warning that the company's debt ratings could be downgraded to junk status by spring.
