couter

HCIHCI Group, Inc.

FinancialsInsurance

HCI Group, Inc. (HCI) operates in the insurance sector, offering property and casualty insurance products primarily in the U.S. The next catalyst is Oct 20, 2026 — TypTap National Expansion & Possible Spin-off Guidance, which will test the company’s strategic direction and capital deployment. The event will likely reveal whether HCI is pursuing organic growth or considering a spin-off of its TypTap division.

  • Revenue reached $927.80M in 2026, with a 13.8% YoY growth.
  • Net income was $278.87M, translating to a 30.1% net margin.
  • Diluted EPS of $5.60 reflects strong profitability.

The Read

HCI's stock historically showed a median absolute move of ~2%.
Oct 20, 2026 — TypTap National Expansion & Possible Spin-off Guidance
Chart by TradingView

The schedule

  • Tue20Oct

    From an assumed de-risked $145.00 base, management's update on the TypTap InsurTech subsidiary's national rollout provides a standalone growth pivot.

  • Tue15Dec

    Year-end legislative and regulatory updates under President Trump's administration and Florida state policymakers will anchor off $175.

  • Thu4Feb

    The Q3 print will fully quantify the financial toll of the preceding hurricane season, launching off a $160.00 base.

  • Tue9Feb

    The full-year 2026 report establishes the 2027 guidance baseline from a $162 level, integrating normalized winter claims.

  • Thu6May

    The spring earnings report from $180 typically sets the operational tone before the next hurricane season cycle.

  • Thu5Aug

Past

  • Tue15Sep

    Actual outcome: Bull · $182.75 at outcome

    HCI's stock moved higher despite the event due to strong earnings that exceeded expectations and positive guidance for the upcoming quarter. The company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit, with management expressing confidence in growth prospects. The market reacted positively to these results, which signaled improved performance and strategic clarity, driving the stock higher.

    Mid-September marks the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, directly challenging HCI's concentrated Florida P&C exposure from a $171.00 base.

  • Thu6Aug

    Actual outcome: Bull · $185.09 at outcome

    The company reported EPS actual of 5.62, matching the estimate, with no significant guidance changes. The stock rallied due to positive sentiment around the mid-year catalyst check, indicating stability in operations and reinforcing long-term strategic direction.

  • Wed1Jul

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $180.56 at outcome

    HCI Group's mid-year reinsurance renewals and the start of the Florida hurricane season passed without a major directional catalyst, resulting in a flat price reaction. Although the company declared its regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.40 per share and received optimistic analyst coverage, the lack of material surprises in its reinsurance placements kept the stock trading sideways.

    HCI finalizes its mid-year reinsurance placements for the crucial Florida hurricane season.

  • Thu7May

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $155.65 at outcome

    HCI Group reported what management described as its best first quarter ever, delivering an earnings beat with EPS of $5.45 and operating revenue of $242.9 million, up 12.2% year-over-year. Despite the strong fundamental performance, expanded capital levels, and continued share repurchases, the stock's reaction was muted, rising just 0.6% as the market weighed the positive results against ongoing risks like high Florida concentration and inflationary pressures.

    First look at 2026 performance after a year of outsized profitability, with investors focused on loss ratios, rate adequacy, and capital return; another clean quarter with disciplined underwriting could lift shares toward $172.00, while any normalization in margins or weaker guidance could knock the stock back toward $172.00.

  • Mon20Apr

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $153.01 at outcome

    The stock experienced a minimal 0.7% decline between the event date and the outcome date, remaining well within the bounds of the bull target and bear floor. There was no specific news released regarding the anticipated TypTap InsurTech subsidiary growth metrics update; instead, the company merely announced its annual shareholders meeting and later declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of 40 cents per share. The lack of material updates on the expected catalyst resulted in flat, ambiguous price action.

    Update on TypTap’s policy growth, loss ratio, and technology platform KPIs, which will inform how much of HCI’s recent earnings acceleration is sustainable; a strong read-through could lift the stock toward $162.00, while signs of slowing growth or rising acquisition costs could push it down toward $162.00.

  • Thu26Feb

    Actual outcome: Bull · $173.55 at outcome

    HCI met EPS expectations while reporting an exceptionally low 15.6% gross loss ratio, confirming that legislative changes in Florida are driving sustainable profitability. The subsequent authorization of an $80 million share repurchase program and multiple analyst upgrades to 'Strong Buy' fueled investor confidence, pushing the stock to nearly touch the bull target by the outcome date.

    The market expects confirmation that the recent explosive growth in net income (due to favorable underwriting and legislative changes in Florida) is sustainable. Guidance for 2026 will be heavily scrutinized.