GRNTGranite Ridge Resources, Inc
The Read
Granite Ridge Resources' stock historically showed a median absolute move of ~9%.
The schedule
- Thu1Oct
Assimilation of anticipated executive action or regulatory easing from the Trump administration on federal leasing and permitting.
- Thu15Oct
Bank syndicate review of proved reserves and WTI curves to set the company's revolving credit limits.
- Tue1Dec
Impact of seasonal crude price fluctuations and the rolling over of GRNT's hedge book for 2027.
- Sun14Feb
Full-year results coupled with the critical annual independent engineering report on 1P reserves.
- Mon15Feb
Official unveiling of the 2027 development plan, prioritizing either growth or debt service.
- Mon15Feb
Third-quarter results featuring initial commentary on the expected 2027 capital program.
- Thu6May
Past
- Tue1Sep
Crucial update on debt refinancing options or potential non-core asset sales to address the soaring leverage profile.
- Thu13Aug
Q2 earnings print evaluating operational efficiency and margin defense.
- Mon1Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $4.70 at outcome
Granite Ridge Resources' strategic capital allocation update failed to reassure investors regarding the sustainability of its quarterly dividend amid escalating capital expenditures. Without a compelling shareholder return plan to offset these spending concerns, the stock declined 6.9% by the outcome date.
Management update on the sustainability of the quarterly dividend in light of escalating capital expenditures.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Bull · $5.65 at outcome
Granite Ridge reported Q1 2026 EPS of -$0.19, meeting analyst estimates, and delivered strong operational results with an 18% increase in daily production to 34,467 Boe per day. The robust production growth and the declaration of a quarterly cash dividend alleviated concerns over cash burn, demonstrating the company's ability to fund its growth program without materially eroding its balance sheet.
Q1 2026 results and commentary on interest expense and cash burn will set the tone for whether Granite Ridge can fund its growth program without materially eroding its balance sheet at $4.95.
- Wed1Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $6.03 at outcome
Granite Ridge Resources exceeded the bull target of $5.25, reaching $5.69 as the market assessed WTI crude oil stability. The stock's upward momentum was further highlighted by a technical 'golden cross' signal, reflecting strong positive sentiment and technical support in the energy sector.
Market assessment of WTI stability under President Trump's 'Drill, Baby, Drill' supply-side policies.
- Fri6Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $5.07 at outcome
Granite Ridge Resources reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.19, exactly matching consensus estimates. With earnings coming in line and no major surprises in the 2026 guidance, the stock had a muted reaction, rising just 1.0% by the outcome date. The lack of a clear catalyst left the price action relatively flat and trading between the bull and bear targets.
Announcement of Q4 2025 results. Focus will be on production volume beat, capital expenditure efficiency, and a robust 2026 guidance that reaffirms commitment to measured growth above $60 WTI. Recent insider buying supports a positive surprise.
