FLYFirefly Aerospace Inc.
Firefly Aerospace Inc. (FLY) sells small satellite launch vehicles and lunar delivery systems, targeting government and commercial space customers. The next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — US FY27 Defense & Space Budget, which will test the company’s ability to secure additional government contracts amid a crowded and capital-intensive sector.
- Firefly’s revenue surged 163% YoY to $244.89M in Q2 2026, but net income remains deeply negative at -$419.08M, with a net margin of -171.1%.
- Free cash flow has been a drag, coming in at -$518.97M over the past 12 months, while debt-to-equity remains low at 0.12x.
- The company’s equity base is robust at $1.19B, but its path to profitability hinges on scaling its lunar and satellite launch business.
The Read
5% on Q2 2026 earnings as outcomes fell between bull and bear targets, with both events showing median absolute moves of ~48%.
The schedule
- Tue15Sep
Potential award or expansion of US Department of Defense and NASA launch and space-services contracts, which could materially extend Firefly’s backlog and support the growth case off a $27.50 base.
- Thu15Oct
The release of the FY27 defense and space budget will provide insight into the potential size of government contracts for Firefly. This is a key catalyst for the company's near-term growth.
- Mon2Nov
This earnings report will test the company's ability to meet revenue and margin expectations amid a challenging macro environment. The outcome will be critical for assessing the progress of its launch cadence and financial discipline.
- Tue15Dec
Potential Equity or Debt Financing to Extend Cash Runway
- Tue9Feb
This earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain its financial discipline and meet revenue targets. The outcome will be critical for assessing the long-term viability of its business model.
- Mon15Mar
The release of key launch cadence and mission details will provide insight into the company's progress in executing its space launch plans. This is a critical catalyst for the company's growth.
- Tue11May
This earnings report will test the company's ability to maintain its financial discipline and meet revenue targets. The outcome will be critical for assessing the long-term viability of its business model.
- Mon2Aug
Past
- Mon3Aug
Actual outcome: Mixed · $21.67 at outcome
The company beat earnings expectations with an EPS of -0.61 vs. estimate -0.61, signaling no material miss. However, the stock fell slightly in the short term due to the shareholder litigation inquiry, which introduced uncertainty. Despite this, the stock rebounded and closed above the bull target of $27.50, reflecting market confidence in the company's long-term prospects and updated guidance.
Q2 2026 results and updated FY26 outlook; market will focus on sustaining >40% YoY revenue growth, backlog tied to DoD/NASA contracts, and cash burn relative to the current $19.27 share price.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $42.79 at outcome
Firefly reported in-line EPS alongside record Q4 revenue that surged 163% year-over-year to $57.7 million, driven by spacecraft milestones and defense contracts. The stock surged well past the bull target as investors cheered the robust top-line growth, a successful return to flight for its Alpha rocket, and new national security partnerships. Furthermore, massive sector tailwinds from a planned SpaceX IPO and NASA's $20 billion Moon base pivot helped fuel the 84% rally.