EXFYExpensify, Inc.
The Read
Historically, EXFY’s stock has shown a median absolute move of about 24%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Shareholder vote on potential reverse split to maintain exchange compliance requirements.
- Tue15Dec
Updates regarding the ongoing strategic review and potential sale of the company to private equity.
- Thu11Feb
Critical assessment of Q3 profitability, core product integrations, and ongoing operational cash flow.
- Sun14Feb
Full-year results and initial guidance for 2027, focusing on organic growth recovery.
- Thu6May
First quarter results detailing adoption rates of new pricing tiers and product features.
Past
- Thu13Aug
Actual outcome: Bull
Expensify reported Q2 results that met EPS estimates and highlighted a return to non-GAAP profitability, with EBITDA margins expanding significantly year-over-year to 19.6%. The stock rallied past the bull target as the company raised its FY2026 free cash flow guidance by 73% to $13 million, easing cash burn concerns and supporting ongoing share buybacks. Additionally, the expansion of its commercial card spend controls to 14 countries further bolstered investor confidence in its growth trajectory.
Market evaluation of Expensify's Q2 top-line growth and cash burn following the recent $25 million tender offer.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $1.41 at outcome
The stock rallied well past the $1.08 bull target, easily clearing the $1.00 minimum bid threshold to avert immediate Nasdaq compliance pressure. The upward momentum was driven by the completion of a $25 million modified 'Dutch auction' tender offer, which reduced outstanding shares, alongside the launch of a new AI-powered expense management tool (Expensify MCP).
If shares break below $1.00 post-earnings, Expensify will face immediate Nasdaq compliance pressure. The lack of a cure plan would drive the stock from $0.88 toward the $0.72 fallback.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $1.13 at outcome
Expensify reported Q1 2026 earnings that exactly matched EPS estimates, failing to provide the definitive proof of top-line growth needed to trigger a major breakout toward the bull target. However, the subsequent announcement of a $25 million modified Dutch auction tender offer to repurchase stock provided strong support for shares, resulting in a relatively flat, mixed price reaction.
With the stock testing $1.12 and RSI highly overbought, Q1 results must prove the recent American Airlines partnership is driving real top-line growth. A failure sends shares to the $0.88 fallback.
- Wed15Apr
Actual outcome: Mixed · $0.87 at outcome
Although the stock's immediate reaction around the annual shareholder meeting was relatively muted, shares subsequently surged past the $0.90 bull target to reach $1.14. This longer-term bullish momentum was supported by positive strategic developments during the period, including a new integration with American Airlines AAdvantage Business and a partnership with the Institute of Commercial Payments (IOCP) to expand access to its spend management platform.
Management faces intense scrutiny following the Q4 earnings collapse and record low stock price.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $0.96 at outcome
Expensify reported Q4 2025 earnings with EPS coming in exactly in-line with estimates at -$0.08. Despite meeting bottom-line expectations, the stock plunged 22.5% and breached the bear floor, indicating that the market was disappointed with the broader full-year results and forward guidance provided in the shareholder letter.
Release of Q4 2025 results and Q1 2026 outlook. Market is focused on customer churn, pace of revenue decline, and path to sustained profitability. Insider selling is a negative signal.
