CRAICRA International, Inc.
CRA International, Inc. (CRAI) provides research and consulting services, primarily in antitrust, regulatory, and economic consulting. The next catalyst is Oct 29, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release & Revised Full-Year Outlook, which will test the company’s ability to maintain revenue growth and margin expansion amid rising costs and competitive pressures.
- Revenue grew 9.3% YoY to $784.56M, with a net margin of 6.0% (TTM).
- Free cash flow was negative $355.86M TTM, reflecting high investment in growth.
- Debt-to-equity ratio is 0.02x, indicating a low leverage profile.
The Read
CRAI’s historical moves around macro catalysts, including June 18 events, typically average about a 6.
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
The earnings release tests whether CRAI can deliver strong revenue growth and margin expansion, with a focus on contract execution and mix improvements. This differs from the last print where the outcome was more influenced by macroeconomic factors.
- Thu10Dec
The event tests CRAI's ability to navigate regulatory changes under the current administration, particularly in M&A activity. This differs from the last similar event where the outcome was more influenced by geopolitical factors.
- Wed20Jan
The update tests CRAI's commitment to capital efficiency and shareholder returns, particularly through buybacks. This differs from the last similar event where the focus was more on cost-cutting rather than buybacks.
- Tue9Feb
The earnings release tests CRAI's ability to meet or exceed revenue and EPS expectations, with a focus on contract execution and margin expansion. This differs from the last print where the outcome was more influenced by macroeconomic factors.
- Thu6May
The earnings release tests CRAI's ability to deliver strong revenue growth and margin expansion, with a focus on contract execution and mix improvements. This differs from the last print where the outcome was more influenced by macroeconomic factors.
- Thu29Jul
The earnings release tests CRAI's ability to meet or exceed revenue and EPS expectations, with a focus on contract execution and margin expansion. This differs from the last print where the outcome was more influenced by macroeconomic factors.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $159.17 at outcome
The stock fell 3.0% following the release of the Fall Expert Utilization & Compensation Expense Update, which signaled underperformance in consultant utilization and higher-than-expected compensation costs. These metrics raised concerns about margin pressure and operational efficiency, overshadowing any potential positives. The price dropped below the bear floor, reflecting market skepticism about the company's ability to manage costs effectively during the fall advisory season.
Market assessment of consultant utilization metrics and compensation costs entering the fall advisory season.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $176.46 at outcome
Charles River Associates reported Q2 2026 earnings that exactly met analyst expectations with an EPS of $1.71. The stock reacted bullishly as investors gained confidence from this steady financial execution, coupled with the strategic addition of Yale professor Kevin Williams to the firm's Antitrust & Competition Economics Practice, which signals continued strength and expanded expertise in its core advisory services.
Market evaluation of Q2 utilization metrics and top-line growth against recent margin compression.
- Thu18Jun
Actual outcome: Mixed · $142.97 at outcome
Charles River's stock trended upward as market sentiment favored the company's strong positioning and rising demand for its specialized advisory services. This underlying demand strength helped offset broader industry concerns regarding AI disruption, talent costs, and margin pressures, driving the stock steadily toward the bull target.
Market assessment of macro-driven margin compression across professional and consulting services, mirroring peer performance.
- Thu7May
Actual outcome: Bull · $162.27 at outcome
Despite headline reports of a slight earnings miss ($1.99 versus $2.02 estimate) and a cautious 2026 revenue outlook, CRAI shares rallied 16.6% following its Q1 earnings release. The market looked past the bottom-line shortfall, focusing instead on the company's top-line revenue beat and management's commentary highlighting continued strong performance and momentum carrying over from a record fiscal 2025.
Q1 2026 earnings at $165.10 will be the first check on whether CRAI is stabilizing margins after the weak Q4 print; a clean beat with better consultant utilization and contained compensation could justify a rebound toward $174.00, while another margin-driven disappointment or cautious commentary on demand would likely push the stock down toward $174.00.
- Wed18Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $160.22 at outcome
During the investor discussion, management laid out a 2026 revenue outlook of $785 million to $805 million, outlined capital allocation priorities, and defended the firm's business model against AI disruption fears. While the stock was initially flat following the update, this reassuring forward guidance and strategic clarity ultimately drove shares upward, pushing the price past the $162.50 bull target by the run date.
Management is expected to address the recent -12% net income contraction through consultant utilization targets.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $156.96 at outcome
While CRAI met earnings estimates and reported record annual revenue, the stock fell sharply as the results confirmed fears of margin compression, with net income growth of 0.31% lagging significantly behind revenue growth of 10.82%. Cautious 2026 guidance and rising consultant compensation costs triggered a multiple contraction, driving the price well below the $171.00 bear floor to $155.14 by the run date.
The market will react to the persistent deceleration of Net Income Growth (0.31% YoY) relative to Revenue Growth (10.82% YoY). Heavy insider selling over the past three months suggests internal concern over margin compression or forward profitability. Cautious 2026 guidance due to elevated consultant compensation costs will lead to a multiple contraction toward the DCF value ($165.10).
