The Read
8% on missed profitability and tariff rollback fears, traded flat amid steel price uncertainty, then rallied 11%–15% on narrower losses, revenue beats, and strong guidance despite margin pressures.
The schedule
- Mon19Oct
Earnings release for Q3 2026, with focus on steel production and trade policy impacts.
- Wed18Nov
Potential trade policy announcements under the Trump administration could impact steel demand and tariffs.
- Tue9Feb
Earnings release for Q4 2026, with focus on year-end demand and production performance.
- Thu29Apr
Earnings release for Q1 2027, with focus on steel demand and production performance.
- Wed21Jul
Earnings release for Q2 2027, with focus on steel demand and production performance.
Past
- Thu23Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $12.25 at outcome
Cleveland-Cliffs reported a Q2 EPS loss of $0.25 that matched estimates, alongside a sequential revenue increase to $5.2 billion and a return to positive free cash flow. The stock rallied 11.8% as management provided strong guidance for a substantially stronger second half of the year, driven by higher steel prices, improved automotive demand, and lower costs.
Cleveland-Cliffs Q2 2026 earnings print, addressing ongoing cash burn and sequential pricing stability at a $12.72 entry.
- Tue21Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $10.61 at outcome
Cleveland-Cliffs reported a narrower-than-expected Q1 loss and a revenue beat driven by increased steel shipments, while also reaffirming its full-year guidance. However, the stock failed to reach bull targets as investors focused on rising operating costs and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty that continues to delay the company's return to net profitability. This conflict between improved top-line results and underlying margin pressure resulted in a flat price reaction, leaving the stock positioned between the bull and bear cases.
- Tue31Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $8.53 at outcome
There was no earnings or guidance release tied to this event, and the HRC/inventory readout did not produce a clear bullish or bearish catalyst; CLF mostly traded sideways and was essentially flat by the outcome date. The only concrete company-specific news was that Cleveland-Cliffs scheduled its Q1 2026 earnings call for April 20, so traders were left waiting for hard results rather than getting a decisive signal from steel prices or inventory data.
- Mon9Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $10.76 at outcome
Cleveland-Cliffs failed to achieve its goal of net profitability, reporting a massive $1.4 billion loss for 2025 and missing Q4 revenue estimates. The stock's downward trajectory was further accelerated by reports that the Trump administration was considering rolling back steel and aluminum tariffs, which investors feared would erode domestic pricing power and increase foreign competition.
