ARVNArvinas, Inc.
Arvinas, Inc. (ARVN) is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on developing novel therapies based on targeted protein degradation, with a primary emphasis on oncology and neurology. The next catalyst is Nov 4, 2026 — Q3 2026 Earnings Release, which will test the company’s financial performance and progress on its key pipeline assets, particularly Vepdegestrant (ARV-471).
- Revenue grew 114.2% YoY to $476.50M in 2026, driven by commercialization of VEPPANU.
- Net income reached $15.50M, with a net margin of 3.3% in the trailing twelve months.
- Free cash flow remained negative at -$620.50M, reflecting high R&D investment and early-stage commercialization.
The Read
Historically, Arvinas (ARVN) has experienced a median absolute stock move of about 8%.
The schedule
- Wed4Nov
The earnings release tests whether the company can deliver consistent revenue and guidance, with a focus on the guidance reset and mix commentary, which historically have had a greater impact than the reported results.
- Sun8Nov
This update tests the progress of the Phase 3 trial for ARV-471, which is critical for the company's pipeline. The outcome will influence investor sentiment around the drug's potential approval timeline and clinical data.
- Sat14Nov
The enrollment update tests the company's ability to meet enrollment targets for the Phase 3 trial, which is a critical milestone for regulatory approval and investor confidence.
- Thu3Dec
The data readout tests the efficacy and safety of ARV-102, which is a key asset in the company's pipeline. Positive results could drive a significant bullish move, while negative results may lead to a sharp decline.
- Mon11Jan
The conference and outlook presentation test the company's ability to communicate its strategic vision and pipeline progress to investors, which is critical for maintaining market confidence.
- Wed20Jan
The presentation tests the company's ability to communicate clinical data from the SABCS conference, which is a key event for the biotech sector. Positive data could support a bullish move.
- Sun14Feb
The earnings release tests whether the company can deliver consistent revenue and guidance, with a focus on the guidance reset and mix commentary, which historically have had a greater impact than the reported results.
- Mon12Apr
The pipeline update tests the company's ability to communicate its progress in the neurology pipeline, which is a key area of focus for the company. Positive updates could support a bullish move.
- Mon10May
The earnings release tests whether the company can deliver consistent revenue and guidance, with a focus on the guidance reset and mix commentary, which historically have had a greater impact than the reported results.
- Tue3Aug
The earnings release tests whether the company can deliver consistent revenue and guidance, with a focus on the guidance reset and mix commentary, which historically have had a greater impact than the reported results.
Past
- Tue6Oct
Actual outcome: Mixed
The stock showed no material price movement following the Competitor TPD/SERD Data Readout, remaining flat between the event and outcome dates. The lack of significant price action suggests the market did not react strongly to the data release, indicating limited impact or mixed sentiment on the results.
Competitor TPD/SERD Data Readout
- Thu20Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $9.60 at outcome
Arvinas secured FDA approval for Veppanu in ESR1-mutated breast cancer, validating its PROTAC degrader platform and prompting an analyst upgrade to Buy. This major regulatory milestone shifted market focus away from dilution fears and toward the company's commercial prospects, driving the stock well above the bull target.
Expected announcement of a dilutive equity offering to secure runway for late-stage clinical programs.
- Tue4Aug
Actual outcome: Mixed · $8.74 at outcome
Arvinas reported major strategic milestones, including the FDA approval of VEPPANU and an out-licensing agreement with Rigel Pharmaceuticals, which drove a massive earnings beat of $2.58 per share. Despite these positive developments and a subsequent analyst upgrade to a 'Strong Buy,' the stock's price reaction was muted, experiencing a slight 2.8% initial decline before recovering to near its pre-earnings levels.
Arvinas reports Q2 2026 results with heavy scrutiny on its $87M Q1 cash balance, VEPPANU launch metrics, and potential milestone relief.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $7.68 at outcome
Arvinas shares rallied past the bull target following the Annual Shareholder Meeting, supported by management's recently outlined strategy to sharpen its pipeline focus following its first PROTAC approval. The market reacted positively to the company's plan to prioritize internal investments in high-potential neurology and oncology programs while seeking partnerships for other assets, driving sustained upward momentum in the stock.
Annual Shareholder Meeting providing routine corporate governance updates alongside potential preliminary insights into second-half pipeline execution.
- Mon11May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $10.11 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($9.80) and bull target ($12.20).
Q1 2026 results and the accompanying pipeline review will reset expectations around Arvinas’ burn rate, cash runway into 2028, and prioritization between Vepdegestrant and earlier-stage degraders. A constructive update could lift the stock toward $12.20, while a miss on expenses or a weaker pipeline narrative risks pushing shares down toward $12.20.
- Tue24Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $13.38 at outcome
Arvinas reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$1.04, exactly in line with consensus estimates. The stock rallied 8.2% following the report, as the company's updated 2026 cash runway guidance reassured investors about its ability to fund ongoing clinical programs without immediate dilutive financing.
The focus is entirely on forward guidance for cash burn, operating runway, and potential collaboration milestone payments, not historical EPS/Revenue.
