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ARQArq, Inc.

Materials

The Read

Arq’s stock rallied sharply, up about 29%, after Q1 2026 revenue topped estimates with $29 million and positive $3 million Adjusted EBITDA easing liquidity fears, but then stalled with a muted 0.
Oct 15, 2026 — GAC Phase II Final Investment Decision (FID)
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The schedule

  • Thu15Oct

    Management's decision on deploying capital for Granular Activated Carbon (GAC) Phase II, which promises higher margins but requires substantial upfront capex.

  • Tue15Dec

    End-of-year closure for municipal water utility procurement contracts, which dictate ARQ's volume pipeline for FY2027.

  • Thu11Feb

    The Q3 report will serve as a barometer for revenue stabilization and initial GAC margins amid shifting utility procurement cycles.

  • Wed5May

    The Q1 print will evaluate sequential top-line momentum and the actualized margins of the scaled GAC operations.

  • Tue18May

    Full-year results and crucial FY2027 forward guidance, dictating whether ARQ can reach sustainable free cash flow generation.

Past

  • Tue15Sep

    A critical window where management may be forced into an equity raise or debt restructuring to fund ongoing operations and the GAC Phase II project.

  • Mon10Aug

    Actual outcome: Bull · $2.30 at outcome

    Arq reported in-line quarterly earnings, posting an EPS that met estimates and showed year-over-year improvement. The stock rallied 11.1% as the steady results and earnings call updates alleviated investor concerns regarding the company's cash burn and ability to service its debt load without near-term dilution.

    ARQ's Q2 print will scrutinize cash burn, FCF trajectories, and the capacity to service its $38.3 million debt load without near-term dilution.

  • Wed15Jul

    Actual outcome: Bear · $2.06 at outcome

    Shares declined 6.4% toward the bear floor amid the EPA's regulatory review of PFAS enforcement policies. The potential rollback of compliance mandates for industrial and municipal water operators threatened to reduce demand for Arq's activated carbon purification products, driving negative sentiment.

    The Trump administration's EPA is slated to review recent PFAS enforcement policies, potentially rolling back compliance mandates for industrial and municipal water operators.

  • Tue30Jun

    Actual outcome: Bear · $2.27 at outcome

    The stock fell 7.8% toward the bear floor as negative news circulated regarding the retraction of in-house resource estimates for the Uchi and Talbot Lake Gold Projects. Although this news pertained to Argo Gold—which shares the ARQ ticker on the Canadian exchange—the lack of positive updates regarding the Red River GAC Phase I facility left the stock vulnerable to downward pressure.

    Completion of the Red River GAC Phase I facility, transitioning Arq from capex burn to high-margin activated carbon revenue generation.

  • Wed6May

    Actual outcome: Bull · $2.71 at outcome

    Arq reported an in-line Q1 loss of $0.02 per share but exceeded revenue estimates by generating approximately $29 million, alongside $3 million in Adjusted EBITDA. The strong top-line performance and updates on the ongoing GAC strategic optimization review drove investor optimism, pushing the stock up 17.3% to exceed the bull target.

    Q1 2026 results and a detailed capital update on May 5 will be a pivotal check on Arq’s path to profitability and liquidity runway, with the stock potentially moving toward $2.50 on signs of improving margins and cash burn, or toward $2.50 if losses stay elevated and balance sheet risk dominates the narrative.