AMCXAMC Global Media Inc.
AMC Global Media Inc. (AMCX) sells streaming content and traditional cable programming, with a focus on branded entertainment and licensing deals. The next catalyst is Oct 1, 2026 — US Ad Market and Cord-Cutting Trends, which will test the company’s ability to adapt to declining linear TV viewership and shifting ad spend.
- Revenue fell 4.5% YoY to $2.25B, with net income at $86M and diluted EPS at -$0.51.
- Free cash flow (TTM) stands at $594.75M, with a net margin of 3.8% and debt-to-equity of 1.80x.
- Shareholders’ equity is $981.87M, with a focus on balancing cash flow and debt reduction.
The Read
7% or more when earnings miss or debt concerns dominate.
The schedule
- Thu1Oct
Analysis of the US ad market and cord-cutting trends, with implications for advertising revenue and subscriber growth.
- Thu29Oct
Earnings report and guidance for Q3 2026, with focus on streaming content performance and advertising revenue.
- Wed10Feb
Earnings report and guidance for Q4 2026, with focus on year-end performance and 2027 outlook.
- Fri7May
Earnings report and guidance for Q1 2027, with focus on long-term growth and strategic initiatives.
- Thu29Jul
Earnings report and guidance for Q2 2027, with focus on long-term growth and strategic initiatives.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Debt refinancing and liability management update, with potential impact on capital structure and interest coverage.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $12.16 at outcome
AMCX's Q2 earnings report on July 30 revealed a five-year Netflix co-exclusive licensing agreement for The Walking Dead, raising full-year guidance. Despite a Q2 loss, the strategic deal and optimism about streaming revenue drove a sharp short-term rebound. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-06 (~5.0σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed.
AMCX's Q2 earnings report on July 30 revealed a five-year Netflix co-exclusive licensing agreement for The Walking Dead, raising full-year guidance. Despite a Q2 loss, the strategic deal and optimism about streaming revenue drove a sharp short-term rebound. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Missed anticipation: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 to 2026-08-06 (~5.0σ vs typical 1d vol). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. Confidence 95%. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-06: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-06 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-07: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-07 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-12: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-12 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-13: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-13 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-14: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-14 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-17: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-17 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-18: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-18 observed. [Market retrospective · Ultra-Short (1–5 days)] Updated observation 2026-08-20: +15.3% from 2026-07-30 (~5.0σ). Target date 2026-08-06 reached; move through 2026-08-20 observed.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $10.90 at outcome
AMC Global Media (AMCX) reported Q2 2026 earnings that matched estimates, but the stock rallied due to raised full-year guidance and a major streaming licensing agreement with Netflix for The Walking Dead. The strategic content deals and industry partnerships reinforced the bull thesis, driving the price above the bull target.
- Fri12Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.36 at outcome
AMC Networks' upfront presentation failed to inspire investor confidence, resulting in a 7.7% drop in the stock. During the same period, the company announced the appointment of Hozefa Lokhandwala as its new Chief Financial Officer. However, this executive transition and the details of the upcoming programming slate did not provide the positive catalyst needed to prevent the sell-off.
Annual presentation to advertisers detailing the upcoming programming slate and securing upfront ad commitments.
- Fri8May
Actual outcome: Bear · $8.39 at outcome
AMC Networks reported Q1 earnings of $0.08 per share, missing the consensus estimate of $0.22 and marking a sharp year-over-year decline. Although management highlighted streaming revenue growth and continued free cash flow generation, the bottom-line miss and ongoing pressures from linear TV subscriber erosion drove a 4.7% decline in the stock by the outcome date.
Market evaluation of Q1 earnings, focusing on whether streaming revenue growth can fully absorb the margin pressure from linear TV subscriber erosion.
- Sun1Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $6.91 at outcome
AMC Networks shares fell 7.6% following the event date as the company focused on debt restructuring rather than announcing a definitive resolution to cable channel licensing renegotiations. News during the period highlighted exchange offers and consent solicitations for its 2029 and 2032 Senior Secured Notes, which underscored the company's debt burden and weighed on near-term investor sentiment.
- Wed11Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $8.66 at outcome
AMC Networks reported Q4 EPS of -$1.26, exactly in line with consensus estimates. The stock rallied 15.5% following the release, driven by the company's 2026 forward guidance which reassured investors regarding its strategic direction and operational stability. This optimistic outlook overshadowed the negative quarterly earnings figure, pushing shares steadily toward the bull target.
