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AIIAmerican Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.

FinancialsInsurance

American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc. (AII) sells property and casualty insurance, with a focus on residential and luxury home coverage. The next catalyst is Nov 2, 2026 — Resolution of Peak Catastrophe Season (Binary Event), which will test the company’s ability to manage loss ratios and maintain margins after the hurricane season.

  • AII operates in Florida, a high-risk market for natural disasters, and has expanded into luxury home insurance.
  • The company’s revenue grew 9.8% YoY, with a net margin of 27.6% in the trailing twelve months.
  • Debt-to-equity is zero, but the business is leveraged through reinsurance and capital deployment.

The Read

4% on earnings, as seen in two events where meeting EPS estimates but lacking growth or showing sharp profit declines led to muted or bearish reactions around July 1 earnings.
Nov 2, 2026 — Resolution of Peak Catastrophe Season (Binary Event)
Chart by TradingView

The schedule

  • Mon2Nov

    A major binary relief valve as the historical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season formally closes, removing existential tail-risk for the fiscal year.

  • Wed20Jan

    Scrutiny on the durability and early claims data arising from Florida's recent property insurance tort reforms as the state legislature reconvenes.

  • Tue9Feb

    Third-quarter results encapsulating peak storm season performance, policyholder growth trends, and updated full-year margin guidance.

  • Sun14Feb

    Year-end 2026 print and initial 2027 guidance, highly scrutinized for capital return potential, reserve adjustments, and net premium growth.

  • Thu13May

    First-quarter earnings carrying an optically favorable year-over-year comparison against the suppressed net income of Q1 2026.

  • Thu12Aug

Past

  • Tue15Sep

    Actual outcome: Bull · $26.40 at outcome

    The stock closed above the bull target of $18.50, reflecting strong investor confidence in the preliminary 2027 reinsurance pricing outlook. Positive sentiment was driven by expectations of stable cost of goods sold and improved capital retention, which aligned with the bull case scenario. The price action confirmed market optimism despite any potential short-term uncertainties.

    Early indications of reinsurance treaty pricing for 2027, serving as a critical barometer for next year's cost of goods sold and capital retention.

  • Wed12Aug

    Actual outcome: Bull · $23.96 at outcome

    AII reported record second-quarter earnings and voluntary new-business production, beating EPS estimates. The strong results, combined with expansion in key markets and positive guidance on margin stability, drove the stock higher, surpassing the bull target.

    Q2 earnings will test whether AII can stabilize net income margins after Q1's sharp 47% YoY drop linked to diminishing Citizens takeout benefits.

  • Wed1Jul

    Actual outcome: Bull · $18.84 at outcome

    NOAA's mid-year update revised the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season forecast, presenting a more favorable outlook with fewer major storms than the market initially feared. This update significantly reduced the company's anticipated exposure to catastrophic weather-related losses, driving the stock past the $18.50 bull target as investors priced in a lower risk profile and protected margins.

    NOAA's updated forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

  • Thu14May

    Actual outcome: Bear · $16.56 at outcome

    American Integrity Insurance reported Q1 2026 EPS of $1.02, meeting estimates, but net income dropped significantly year-over-year from $35.9 million to $19.9 million. Management attributed the decline to a tough comparison against the prior year's elevated Citizens Property Insurance takeout activity, and this steep drop in profitability drove the stock below the bear floor.

    Q1 2026 results and commentary on reinsurance usage, risk retention, and rate adequacy will be the first detailed read-through after the special dividend, with investors focused on whether American Integrity can sustain recent underwriting margins heading into hurricane season. A clean print with continued ROE strength could push the stock toward $20.25, while any sign of margin compression or reserve noise could see shares fade toward $20.25.

  • Wed1Apr

    Actual outcome: Bear · $18.76 at outcome

    The North Carolina expansion update failed to demonstrate the GWP growth or claims performance improvements expected by investors, causing the stock to fall below the $19.00 bear floor. While the company appointed Brian Foley as the new CFO shortly after the update, the lack of positive fundamental data from the diversification progress report led to a sustained decline in price.

    Update on GWP growth and claims performance in the North Carolina market, validating the geographic diversification strategy.

  • Fri27Feb

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $18.84 at outcome

    The stock fell 2.6% immediately after the earnings release, but the 2026 guidance signaled strong capital adequacy and stability in loss reserves, aligning with the bull case. The price rebounded and surpassed the bull target by the run date, reflecting market confidence in the long-term strategic direction and improved financial outlook.

    Focus on capital adequacy, loss reserve changes, and 2026 guidance ahead of the hurricane season. Guidance carries 3x weight.