Expected Moves

Actual outcome: Bull · $213.82 at outcome

The stock rose 3.1% following the event, driven by positive industry insights on agricultural loan health and delinquency trends, which signaled improved sector stability. The outcome date price of $213.82 approached the bull target, reflecting market confidence in the long-term outlook despite mixed short-term earnings performance.

Actual outcome: Mixed · $218.68 at outcome

The stock fell 0.7% following the FOMC meeting, reflecting market concerns over the trajectory of interest rates impacting AGM's valuation. Despite the stock trading at all-time highs prior to the event, the outcome date price of $218.68 fell below the bear floor of $210.00, indicating a shift in sentiment toward rate sensitivity. The price continued to decline further to $203.82, suggesting broader market uncertainty about the Fed's rate path and its implications for corporate earnings.

Actual outcome: Bull · $233.37 at outcome

Farmer Mac beat earnings expectations with an EPS of 4.56 vs. estimate 4.56, signaling stability in its financial performance. The stock rallied on strong profit strength and focus on credit operations, which reinforced investor confidence despite a short-term pullback. The price ultimately surpassed the bull target, aligning with the positive fundamentals and strategic emphasis on NIM stability and loan originations.

Actual outcome: Bull · $198.40 at outcome

Shares of Federal Agricultural Mortgage (AGM) exceeded the $198.00 bull target, closing at $203.11. The upward momentum was supported by positive industry commentary highlighting AGM as a standout stock poised to flourish despite broader weakness in the mortgage and related services sector.

Actual outcome: Bull · $178.40 at outcome

Farmer Mac (AGM) reported strong Q1 2026 results, featuring outstanding business volume of $34.8 billion and earnings of $4.74 per share that beat consensus estimates of $4.52. This solid financial performance and continued business growth drove a 4.2% rally in the stock over the following week.

Actual outcome: Bull · $162.73 at outcome

AGM shares rallied 14.3% to exceed the $158.00 bull target following the March FOMC meeting. The stock's upward momentum was supported by a favorable macroeconomic backdrop and rate trajectory for the agricultural credit provider, alongside positive sentiment from institutional accumulation, including Captrust Financial Advisors increasing its stake by 5.9%.

Actual outcome: Bear · $155.57 at outcome

Federal Agricultural Mortgage reported Q4 EPS of $3.71, exactly meeting analyst estimates, alongside a 10% year-over-year increase in net interest income. However, the stock fell 8% and breached the bear floor because the overall results were weighed down by higher loan loss provisions. These increased provisions overshadowed the otherwise robust loan portfolio quality, sparking near-term concerns among investors.