AEROGrupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V.
The Read
AERO's stock historically showed a median absolute move of ~11%.
The schedule
- Tue1Dec
Market evaluation of corporate travel demand under current US-Mexico bilateral trade relations.
- Thu28Jan
Q3 earnings presentation focusing on operating cash flow generation versus planned capital expenditures.
- Thu29Apr
First quarter results offering a fresh gauge on seasonal leisure demand and operational leverage.
- Thu29Apr
End-of-year results and initial capacity and revenue guidance for FY 2027.
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $15.96 at outcome
Stock rose 8.0% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bull trajectory.
Management addresses upcoming debt maturities and capital structure optimization.
- Thu30Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $15.40 at outcome
Aeroméxico reported Q2 2026 EPS of $0.076, exactly meeting consensus estimates. However, the stock remained pressured well below the bear floor as investors focused on ongoing margin vulnerabilities tied to MXN volatility and fuel cost headwinds. Without a definitive earnings beat or reassuring forward guidance to offset these operational pressures, shares failed to gain traction and settled in bearish territory.
Aeroméxico reports Q2 2026 earnings with a focus on margin defense amidst MXN volatility and fuel cost headwinds.
- Mon15Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $18.00 at outcome
Aeroméxico did not release the anticipated interim update on summer leisure demand and yields, instead only announcing the schedule for its Q2 2026 financial results webcast. Without a specific fundamental catalyst, the stock drifted higher to approach the bull target, driven by positive market sentiment and anticipation ahead of the upcoming earnings report.
Interim update on peak summer passenger volumes and advanced booking yields.
- Thu30Apr
Actual outcome: Bull · $16.01 at outcome
Aeroméxico’s Q1 2026 results were essentially in line on EPS ($1.20 vs. $1.20 expected), but the operating print was strong: total revenue rose 13% year over year and the company reported a 25% adjusted EBITDAR margin, 11% operating margin, and liquidity equal to 23% of LTM revenue. That combination pointed to solid profitability and balance-sheet stability, supporting the bull case that the airline is converting growth into higher earnings and can sustain its valuation, which helps explain why the stock held steady rather than selling off.
Q1 2026 results will show how Grupo Aeroméxico is converting modest 1.64% revenue growth into sharply higher profitability, and whether FY 2026 guidance supports the current low P/E of 5.87 and EV/EBITDA of 3.36. A clean print with disciplined capacity, stable yields, and evidence that net income growth above 100% YoY is sustainable could justify a re-rating toward $17.50, while weaker demand, Mexico–US traffic softness, or renewed fare pressure could pull the stock back toward $17.50.
