ADPAutomatic Data Processing, Inc.
This is the year ADP has to prove it can sustain its growth story beyond the tailwinds of a resilient labor market and a shift toward digital payroll. The next catalyst is the Q3 2026 earnings release on 2026-10-30, where the stock is expected to anchor at $283.53, with a bull target of $300.00 and a bear fallback of $265.00, leaning 50% toward the bull. If the company delivers strong results and guidance that signals continued momentum, the path to $315.00 by Q1 2027 and $330.75 by Q2 2027 could unfold. But if the market is disappointed, the bear path could take it all the way down to $299.25. The outcome of this earnings event will set the tone for the next leg of the story.
The schedule
- Fri30Oct
The Q3 2026 earnings release is a key event that will provide insight into ADP's financial performance and guidance for the fiscal year 2027. This event is expected to have a significant impact on the stock price, as it will reveal actual results against expectations and offer a glimpse into future business conditions. The market will closely watch for any surprises in revenue or profit, which could signal the company's health and growth prospects. Investors should be prepared for potential volatility around this date as the market reacts to the information released.
- Thu6May
- Wed4Aug
Past
- Wed29Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $266.46 at outcome
ADP delivered a Q4 double beat with EPS of $2.64 and 7% revenue growth, driven by broad-based growth and 140 basis points of margin expansion. While broader market weakness surrounding the FOMC rate decision caused a slight pullback over the event window, the company's robust fundamentals and strong free cash flow kept shares trading significantly above the bull target.
ADP delivered a Q4 double beat with EPS of $2.64 and 7% revenue growth, driven by broad-based growth and 140 basis points of margin expansion. While broader market weakness surrounding the FOMC rate decision caused a slight pullback over the event window, the company's robust fundamentals and strong free cash flow kept shares trading significantly above the bull target.
- Wed29Jul
Actual outcome: Bull · $266.46 at outcome
ADP delivered a Q4 double beat on earnings and revenue, driven by broad-based growth, higher client funds income, and productivity gains that expanded margins. Although management guided for modestly lower revenue growth in FY27, the company's robust free cash flow and aggressive share buybacks reinforced investor confidence, keeping the stock well above the bull target.
ADP delivered a Q4 double beat on earnings and revenue, driven by broad-based growth, higher client funds income, and productivity gains that expanded margins. Although management guided for modestly lower revenue growth in FY27, the company's robust free cash flow and aggressive share buybacks reinforced investor confidence, keeping the stock well above the bull target.
- Tue30Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $214.09 at outcome
ADP beat earnings estimates of $2.45 with actual results of $2.45 but provided softer FY2026 guidance, citing slower revenue growth and increased PEO margin pressure. The stock fell as investors focused on the revised guidance highlighting challenges in labor market trends and soft volumes, overshadowing the earnings beat.
ADP beat earnings estimates of $2.45 with actual results of $2.45 but provided softer FY2026 guidance, citing slower revenue growth and increased PEO margin pressure. The stock fell as investors focused on the revised guidance highlighting challenges in labor market trends and soft volumes, overshadowing the earnings beat.
- Wed3Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $231.95 at outcome
ADP released its National Employment Report on June 3, revealing that private companies added 122,000 jobs in May, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000. This resilient labor market data boosted broader market sentiment and reinforced ADP's core business outlook, driving the stock past its bull target to close at $231.95.
ADP released its National Employment Report on June 3, revealing that private companies added 122,000 jobs in May, surpassing economists' expectations of 110,000. This resilient labor market data boosted broader market sentiment and reinforced ADP's core business outlook, driving the stock past its bull target to close at $231.95.
- Sun8Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $209.11 at outcome
While the February ADP report beat estimates with 63,000 jobs added, a sharp downward revision to January data and broader market rotation away from growth-oriented valuations pressured the stock. Despite solid earnings beats and its Dividend King status, the price fell below the bear floor as institutional investors reduced stakes amid concerns over extreme market valuations and geopolitical headwinds.
While the February ADP report beat estimates with 63,000 jobs added, a sharp downward revision to January data and broader market rotation away from growth-oriented valuations pressured the stock. Despite solid earnings beats and its Dividend King status, the price fell below the bear floor as institutional investors reduced stakes amid concerns over extreme market valuations and geopolitical headwinds.
- Sun15Feb
Actual outcome: Bear · $208.52 at outcome
The market failed to receive the positive clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate path necessary to support ADP's float income durability, which was the core catalyst focus. The price settled near the bear floor ($212.11 vs. $205.00), reflecting continued uncertainty and failure to clear the oversold state. This negative sentiment was reinforced by reports of significant insider selling and institutional reduction of stakes during the period, preventing any rally toward the bull target.
The market failed to receive the positive clarity on the Federal Reserve's rate path necessary to support ADP's float income durability, which was the core catalyst focus. The price settled near the bear floor ($212.11 vs. $205.00), reflecting continued uncertainty and failure to clear the oversold state. This negative sentiment was reinforced by reports of significant insider selling and institutional reduction of stakes during the period, preventing any rally toward the bull target.
- Wed28Jan
Actual outcome: Bear · $234.67 at outcome
ADP reported a headline beat on Q2 EPS and revenue, and raised its annual revenue forecast, driven by steady demand for payroll services. However, the stock collapsed, falling sharply below the $250 bear floor, indicating the market viewed the growth rate as insufficient to justify the stock's premium valuation. This negative sentiment was compounded by the subsequent release of the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private sector employment growth well below expectations, fueling concerns about future client headcount and service revenue.
ADP reported a headline beat on Q2 EPS and revenue, and raised its annual revenue forecast, driven by steady demand for payroll services. However, the stock collapsed, falling sharply below the $250 bear floor, indicating the market viewed the growth rate as insufficient to justify the stock's premium valuation. This negative sentiment was compounded by the subsequent release of the ADP National Employment Report, which showed private sector employment growth well below expectations, fueling concerns about future client headcount and service revenue.
