ADHIArsenal Digital Holdings, Inc.
The schedule
- Thu29Oct
For the Q3 FY26 earnings at $0.10, the $0.20 target requires ADHI to consolidate its Blackrock Midstream revenue. The $0.05 fallback reflects a third consecutive quarter of zero revenue, deepening the fundamental disconnect.
- Thu10Dec
With the stock at $0.05, the PCAOB audit update is binary. The $0.15 target assumes audit completion clears the path for an SEC S-1 filing. The $0.02 fallback assumes the audit stalls indefinitely, trapping ADHI on the OTC.
- Wed20Jan
Anchored at $0.02, updates on the Texas datacenter campus could provide a sentiment shock. The $0.08 target assumes a hyped PR regarding AI power capacity draws retail volume, while the $0.01 fallback reflects zero financing progress.
- Fri26Feb
From $0.08, the Q4 FY26 earnings print will test the AI pivot. The $0.15 target requires tangible year-end cash flow and capitalization progress. The $0.03 fallback sees the datacenter hype unmasked by severe cash burn and zero consolidated sales.
Past
- Fri25Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $0.29 at outcome
Stock fell 100.0% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bear trajectory.
With $0.17 as our anchor, an imminent capital raise is critical. The $0.25 favorable target assumes a strategic partner funds the uplisting on clean terms, while the $0.10 adverse fallback assumes a toxic convertible note or discounted equity offering to cure the low cash balance.
