ACICAmerican Coastal Insurance Corporation
American Coastal Insurance Corporation (ACIC) writes specialty insurance policies for coastal properties, focusing on risk management for high-value real estate in vulnerable geographic zones. The next catalyst is Jan 20, 2027 — 2027 Reinsurance Treaty Renewals and Rate Adequacy, which will test the company’s ability to secure favorable reinsurance terms amid rising catastrophe risk.
- ACIC’s revenue grew 13.1% YoY to $330.68M, with a net margin of 30.3% in the trailing twelve months.
- The company maintains a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.47x and holds $317.56M in shareholders’ equity.
- Its diluted EPS of $0.44 reflects a balance between growth and capital preservation.
The Read
ACIC's stock historically showed a median absolute move of ~6%.
The schedule
- Wed20Jan
Finalization of critical January reinsurance treaties, setting ACIC's cost structure and risk retention for the upcoming calendar year.
- Mon8Feb
Q3 earnings will formally quantify any catastrophic losses absorbed during the 2026 hurricane season and assess the durability of the AmRisc partnership.
- Sun14Feb
Q4 earnings serve as a clean wrap-up of the fiscal year, providing 2027 forward guidance and capital return updates.
- Mon10May
Q1 2027 print highlighting early-year premium growth, operating cash flow, and pre-season balance sheet strength.
- Mon9Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.20 at outcome
The stock fell below the bear floor following the Peak 2026 Hurricane Season Catastrophe Risk Evaluation, reflecting heightened systemic risk to Florida-centric insurers like ACIC. The outcome date closing price of $9.18 indicates a significant decline, driven by concerns over potential catastrophic losses from hurricanes, which overshadowed any previous market sentiment.
The climax of the Atlantic hurricane season, representing peak systemic risk to Florida-centric property and casualty insurers like ACIC.
- Mon10Aug
Actual outcome: Bear · $9.87 at outcome
ACIC reported an EPS of $0.40, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 1.9% as the market reacted to lower pricing pressures and catastrophe losses impacting profitability. The company's disciplined underwriting approach was noted, but the price action suggests investor concerns about the broader challenges in the insurance sector.
Market evaluation of Q2 performance following the Q1 EPS miss ($0.39 vs $0.44) and the company's aggressive $14.4 million common stock repurchase during Q2.
- Tue30Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $11.53 at outcome
American Coastal Insurance reached its bull target following the company's announcement that it completed $14.4 million in common stock share repurchases during the second quarter. This significant return of capital to shareholders drove positive momentum and investor confidence around the time of the Florida tort reform review.
Assessment of early claims data reflecting Florida's tort reform legislation to gauge impact on litigation expenses.
- Mon11May
Actual outcome: Bear · $10.50 at outcome
American Coastal Insurance reported Q1 2026 earnings of $0.39 per share, missing consensus estimates of $0.44, and also lagged revenue expectations. These top- and bottom-line misses raised concerns about the company's ability to sustain its recent profitability step-ups, driving the stock below the bear floor.
Q1 2026 results on May 8 will show how January renewals and the AmRisc book are flowing through written and earned premium, as well as whether ACIC can sustain the recent step-up in profitability at a stock price of $11.26. A clean quarter with stable loss ratios and steady renewal pricing could move the shares toward $12.30, while any sign that margins are peaking or cat losses are normalizing higher could pull the stock back toward $12.30 by May 13.
- Fri20Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $11.40 at outcome
Just prior to the expected AmRisc E&S portfolio update, American Coastal announced the completion of a $5 million share repurchase program. While the buyback provided a modest initial lift to the shares, the lack of a major operational update regarding the E&S partnership left investors without a clear fundamental catalyst, causing the stock to drift lower to $11.26 by the run date and fall short of the bull target.
Official operational update on the Excess & Surplus (E&S) partnership with AmRisc.
- Mon2Mar
Actual outcome: Mixed · $11.62 at outcome
American Coastal Insurance reported Q4 2025 EPS of $0.55, exactly matching consensus estimates. With results perfectly in line with expectations and a notable drop in short interest leading up to the print, the market reaction was muted, resulting in a flat price movement as investors digested the anticipated performance without any major surprises.
Release of Q4 2025 results and formal commentary on the favorable January 1, 2026, reinsurance renewals. A 250% YoY EPS increase is anticipated by consensus, but the market seeks confirmation of the premium growth and expense ratios.
