ACGLArch Capital Group Ltd.
Arch Capital Group Ltd. (ACGL) is a global reinsurance and specialty insurance company that writes property and casualty insurance, primarily for commercial clients. The next catalyst is Jan 5, 2027 — January 1 Reinsurance Renewal Pricing Updates, which will test the company’s ability to secure favorable pricing and retention levels in a tight reinsurance market.
- ACGL’s reinsurance business is its largest revenue driver, with $19.51B in revenue for the 12 months ended June 30, 2026.
- The company reported a net margin of 24.0% in the trailing twelve months, with net income of $4.69B and diluted EPS of $3.00.
- Shareholders’ equity stands at $24.21B, and the business is leveraged with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.3x (as of 2026-06-30).
The schedule
- Tue5Jan
Industry reports and company updates regarding the critical January 1 reinsurance renewals, setting the tone for 2027 premiums and potentially pushing shares to $112.50.
- Wed27Jan
Q3 earnings will confirm whether the strategy of prioritizing underwriting margins over top-line growth is sustaining elevated profitability, determining a move to $107.00 or a retreat to $95.00.
- Wed28Apr
Arch Capital delivers full-year 2026 results and issues 2027 guidance, a critical catalyst for forward valuation multiples that could unlock $118.00.
- Wed28Jul
Q1 2027 earnings release showing early progress on the new year's underwriting and investment income targets, with a bull case to $124.00 or a bear case to $109.00.
- Wed27Oct
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Mixed · $96.69 at outcome
Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($92.00) and bull target ($102.00).
Market assessment of Arch Capital's Q3 catastrophe loss exposure following the statistical peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, with a favorable update driving shares to $102.00 or a harsh season dropping them to $92.00.
- Wed29Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $100.53 at outcome
Arch Capital reported Q2 2026 earnings that met EPS estimates, with operating income of $2.56 per share beating some consensus marks thanks to strong investment income and reserve gains. However, the stock sold off because the results revealed lower premiums, catastrophe pressures, and reduced underwriting profit. Trading at all-time highs heading into the print, these underlying weaknesses failed to clear the elevated bar required by investors, driving the stock lower.
Arch Capital reports Q2 2026 results against a backdrop of trading at all-time highs, raising the bar for a beat and raise to justify a move to $108.00.
- Tue5May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $93.83 at outcome
Arch Capital delivered mixed Q1 results, beating EPS estimates ($2.50 vs. $2.45 expected) driven by strong underwriting profitability, an 81.7% combined ratio, and $200 million in favorable reserve developments. However, this bottom-line strength was offset by a year-over-year decline in premiums and overall revenues as the company prioritized margin preservation over growth, resulting in a flat stock reaction.
Arch Capital delivered mixed Q1 results, beating EPS estimates ($2.50 vs. $2.45 expected) driven by strong underwriting profitability, an 81.7% combined ratio, and $200 million in favorable reserve developments. However, this bottom-line strength was offset by a year-over-year decline in premiums and overall revenues as the company prioritized margin preservation over growth, resulting in a flat stock reaction.
- Thu26Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $99.85 at outcome
Arch Capital delivered a strong Q4 beat, reporting $2.98 EPS versus the $2.49 consensus estimate, driven by exceptional underwriting results and record segment performance in reinsurance. Executives highlighted "another exceptional year" and strong income growth, confirming the bull case expectation of robust performance in the hard market. This fundamental strength and positive commentary validated the company's disciplined risk management and drove the stock higher, initially clearing the $99.00 bull target.
Arch Capital delivered a strong Q4 beat, reporting $2.98 EPS versus the $2.49 consensus estimate, driven by exceptional underwriting results and record segment performance in reinsurance. Executives highlighted "another exceptional year" and strong income growth, confirming the bull case expectation of robust performance in the hard market. This fundamental strength and positive commentary validated the company's disciplined risk management and drove the stock higher, initially clearing the $99.00 bull target.
