ACDCProFrac Holding Corp.
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) sells frac sand and other specialty aggregates used in hydraulic fracturing operations. The company’s next catalyst is Oct 15, 2026 — Debt Refinancing & Capital Structure Update, which will test its ability to refinance existing debt and restructure its capital base amid a challenging revenue environment. The event will also signal management’s confidence in the company’s financial flexibility and long-term viability.
- ProFrac operates in the agricultural products sector, with a focus on frac sand and related materials.
- The company has reported a net loss of $372.10M for the fiscal year ending June 30, 2026, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.36x.
- Free cash flow has been negative for the trailing twelve months, reflecting ongoing pressure on cash flow from operations.
The Read
ACDC's stock historically reacted with a median absolute move of ~9%.
The schedule
- Thu15Oct
Critical update on addressing the $1.21B debt load amidst negative free cash flow, projecting a base of $3.19, a recovery target of $4.20, and a capitulation fallback of $2.50.
- Wed20Jan
Strategic allocation of CapEx balancing fleet upgrades against liquidity constraints, anchored at a base of $3.50, with a target of $4.10 and a fallback of $2.90.
- Fri5Feb
Assessment of Q3 results and early 2027 visibility, evaluating a base of $4.20, a target of $4.90, and a fallback of $3.50.
- Tue9Feb
Full-year financial wrap-up emphasizing operational execution and fleet utilization, with a base of $4.10, target of $4.80, and fallback of $3.40.
- Tue11May
Spring assessment of drilling momentum and top-line expansion, modeling a base of $4.80, a target of $5.50, and a fallback of $3.90.
- Tue10Aug
Past
- Tue15Sep
Actual outcome: Bull · $4.60 at outcome
The stock initially fell 5.3% following the event but later surged past the bull target of $4.30, closing at $4.60. This rally was driven by positive developments in trade policy that reduced tariffs on oilfield equipment, improving cost structures and long-term profitability expectations. The price action exceeded the initial bear floor, reflecting renewed confidence in the company's strategic positioning and operational resilience.
Evaluation of President Trump's administration trade tariffs on equipment procurement costs, modeling a base of $3.80, target of $4.30, and a 52-week low fallback of $3.19.
- Tue11Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $7.15 at outcome
ProFrac reported a Q1 2026 net loss but successfully beat revenue expectations, posting $450 million compared to $437 million in the prior quarter. This sequential top-line growth and signs of stabilizing activity overshadowed the bottom-line deficit, driving strong momentum that pushed the stock 7.4% higher over the outcome period.
ProFrac reported a Q1 2026 net loss but successfully beat revenue expectations, posting $450 million compared to $437 million in the prior quarter. This sequential top-line growth and signs of stabilizing activity overshadowed the bottom-line deficit, driving strong momentum that pushed the stock 7.4% higher over the outcome period.
- Fri7Aug
Actual outcome: Bull · $5.38 at outcome
ProFrac Holding Corp. (ACDC) reported a quarterly loss of $0.51 per share, matching the Zacks Consensus Estimate, but the stock rallied due to improved operational efficiency, higher revenue, and a refinanced asset-based lending facility. The leadership transition and positive guidance on fleet pricing updates reinforced investor confidence, driving the stock above the bull target.
Quarterly earnings evaluating revenue and EBITDA generation against heavy debt constraints, setting a base of $4.50, a target of $5.20, and a fallback of $3.80.
- Tue30Jun
Actual outcome: Bear · $5.35 at outcome
ProFrac announced the refinancing of its Asset-Based Lending Facility to enhance financial flexibility. However, the stock fell 8.2% as the market remained focused on softer U.S. shale completions activity and declining rig counts, which likely pressured the company's pricing power and overshadowed the debt refinancing.
Market assessment of U.S. shale completions activity, testing ACDC's pricing power against softer rig counts, with a base of $5.35, target of $6.00, and fallback of $4.50.
- Fri22May
Actual outcome: Bear · $6.91 at outcome
ProFrac did not release any material strategic updates or new capital allocation plans following its annual shareholder meeting. In the absence of clear messaging regarding returns on fleet investments or portfolio streamlining, the stock lacked a positive catalyst and drifted lower, eventually falling well below the bear floor in the weeks that followed.
The 2026 annual shareholder meeting will focus on ProFrac's strategy for leveraging a tightening U.S. completions market, potential portfolio streamlining, and governance updates. A disciplined capital allocation framework and clearer articulation of returns on its fleet investments could support the stock toward $7.90, while vague messaging, perceived governance risk, or a more aggressive growth-at-all-costs stance could see shares slip toward $7.90 from a $7.29 starting point.
- Fri13Mar
Actual outcome: Bull · $6.42 at outcome
ProFrac exceeded its bull target as investors looked past a quarterly loss to focus on signs that U.S. completions activity has bottomed and the frac market is tightening. Positive sentiment was driven by the successful commercial deployment of closed-loop fracturing technology and expectations for higher EBITDA in 2026 resulting from geopolitical supply constraints and modernized fleet demand.
Release of full-year 2025 results and management's initial outlook for the 2026 drilling season.
