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ABRArbor Realty Trust, Inc.

Real Estate

Arbor Realty Trust, Inc. (ABR) is a real estate investment trust that owns and operates industrial and commercial real estate, primarily in the U.S. The next catalyst is Sep 26, 2026 — Here's Why Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Gained But Lagged the Market Today, which will test the company’s ability to outperform in a market where legacy asset resolution and credit risk remain key concerns.

  • ABR’s core business is industrial and commercial real estate, with a focus on high-yield, short-duration assets.
  • The company has a history of dividend cuts and volatility tied to its legacy asset performance.
  • Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 3.75x, reflecting a leveraged capital structure.

The Read

1% on average around catalysts, typically declining sharply when distributable earnings missed estimates and dividend coverage fell below sustainable levels amid rising credit concerns and legacy asset losses.
Oct 30, 2026 — Q3 2018 Earnings Release
Chart by TradingView

The schedule

  • Fri30Oct
  • Fri30Oct

    The next earnings report will test the company's ability to manage NPLs and deliver earnings surprises amid a challenging macro environment.

  • Fri22Jan
  • Fri22Jan

    This earnings report will test the company's ability to sustain performance and manage credit risk in a volatile market.

Past

  • Sat26Sep

    Actual outcome: Bear · $2.86 at outcome

    Stock fell 12.6% from event to outcome date, aligning with the bear trajectory.

    Here's Why Arbor Realty Trust (ABR) Gained But Lagged the Market Today

  • Sat26Sep

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $3.97 at outcome

    Price at outcome date was between bear floor ($3.10) and bull target ($5.49).

    Short sellers and insider buyers are clashing, with a potential downgrade expected to test liquidity and investor sentiment. This event will highlight the issuer's exposure to macroeconomic shifts and credit risk.

  • Wed16Sep

    Actual outcome: Bear · $3.86 at outcome

    The stock fell 4.9% following the FOMC rate decision, missing the bull target and falling below the bear floor. The market reacted negatively to the macroeconomic uncertainty surrounding the Fed Funds Rate trajectory, which weighed on commercial real estate debt valuations, leading to a decline in the stock price.

    The September FOMC rate decision acts as a macro fulcrum for commercial real estate debt valuations, anchoring from $4.50 as the market digests the trajectory of the Fed Funds Rate.

  • Fri31Jul

    Actual outcome: Bull · $5.09 at outcome

    Arbor Realty Trust reported in-line EPS of $0.0665, matching the estimate, and provided positive guidance on NPL resolution and dividend protection. The stock rallied 4.9% as investors reacted favorably to the progress on NPLs and the stability in dividend payouts, signaling improved outlook despite the neutral earnings report.

    Q2 2026 earnings will reveal if Arbor Realty Trust can stem the bleeding from NPLs and protect its newly recalibrated dividend from current $5.27 levels.

  • Tue16Jun

    Actual outcome: Mixed · $5.10 at outcome

    Arbor Realty Trust saw a muted price reaction, falling just 1.9% around its anticipated Q2 dividend policy update. With the market having already digested the severe Q1 common dividend cut to $0.17 per share, the lack of major new fundamental surprises kept the stock trading in a tight range without a clear directional breakout.

    Arbor Realty's board is expected to announce its Q2 dividend policy, a highly scrutinized event given severe Q1 coverage shortfalls.

  • Fri8May

    Actual outcome: Bear · $5.85 at outcome

    Arbor Realty Trust reported Q1 distributable earnings of $0.07 per share, significantly missing the consensus estimate of $0.16 per share, alongside $22.9 million in net realized losses from legacy asset resolutions. Management warned that higher long-term interest rates are extending the timeline for resolving troubled assets and weighing heavily on earnings, driving the stock's sharp 18.9% decline.

  • Thu12Mar

    Actual outcome: Bear · $7.78 at outcome

    The dividend declaration failed to reassure investors as distributable EPS coverage dropped to just 73%, signaling high risk for a future cut amid rising non-performing loans and declining interest income. Concerns over legacy portfolio issues and weak senior note pricing drove the stock below the bear floor, as the market prioritized deteriorating credit quality over the current yield.

  • Fri27Feb

    Actual outcome: Bear · $7.29 at outcome

    Arbor Realty missed distributable earnings (DE) estimates ($0.19 vs. $0.21 expected) and reported a significant shortfall in dividend coverage, with the $0.30 dividend far exceeding the $0.19 in DE. This confirmed market skepticism regarding credit quality and the sustainability of the high payout under sustained high interest rates, driving the stock price toward the bear floor.