ABGAsbury Automotive Group, Inc.
Asbury Automotive Group, Inc. (ABG) operates a network of automotive dealerships across the U.S., selling new and used vehicles through franchised and company-owned locations. The next catalyst is Oct 7, 2026 — Asbury Automotive Group (NYS news), which will test the company’s ability to navigate macroeconomic pressures and maintain its revenue growth trajectory.
- ABG’s revenue grew 16.1% YoY to $15.19B in 2024, driven by strong used vehicle sales and dealer financing.
- Free cash flow (TTM) reached $1.45B, with a net margin of 4.2% and a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.89x.
- The stock’s next test will be whether it can sustain momentum amid a potential slowdown in consumer spending and rising interest rates.
The Read
After narrowly missing its Q4 2025 earnings target, ABG rallied 6%.
The schedule
- Wed7Oct
This event will test the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic pressures, particularly with the Fed Funds Rate at 3.75% and a tightening labor market. The outcome will reflect the impact of recent interest rate hikes on consumer spending and vehicle financing.
- Fri30Oct
- Fri29Jan
- Tue9Feb
This earnings release will test the company's performance against a backdrop of sustained high interest rates and a tight labor market. The results will provide insight into the effectiveness of cost management and pricing strategies.
- Tue27Apr
- Fri1Oct
This event will test the company's stock performance against broader market movements, particularly as the market reacts to macroeconomic data and Fed policy signals.
Past
- Fri31Jul
Actual outcome: Bear · $218.58 at outcome
Asbury Automotive Group (ABG) beat earnings expectations with an EPS of $6.26, matching the estimate, but the stock fell 5.3% due to weaker-than-expected revenue and a 25% decline in net income compared to the prior year. The market reacted negatively to the revenue miss and the broader decline in profitability, despite the earnings beat, as investors focused on the underlying performance and margin pressures.
- Thu25Jun
Actual outcome: Bull · $201.97 at outcome
Asbury Automotive Group shares reached the bull target as the market reacted positively to the incoming leadership's strategic transition update. Investor confidence was bolstered by the new CEO's detailed presentation on cost-containment measures and margin-defense strategies, complemented by the recent release of the 2025 Corporate Responsibility Report. This clear focus on operational efficiency and corporate visibility drove the stock to close at $203.05.
- Fri1May
Actual outcome: Mixed · $199.48 at outcome
Asbury Automotive Group reported Q1 2026 adjusted earnings of $5.37 per share, missing consensus estimates of $5.68 due to softer adjusted profit margins, despite a boost in GAAP net income from divestitures. The earnings miss, coupled with the announcement of CEO David Hult transitioning to Executive Chairman, weighed on investor sentiment and caused the stock to steadily decline below the bear floor in the weeks following the release.
- Sun1Mar
Actual outcome: Bear · $194.06 at outcome
The confirmation of a sustained high-interest-rate environment intensified pressure on floor plan financing costs and consumer affordability, leading the stock to hit a new 52-week low shortly after the event. While Asbury attempted to stabilize its position through portfolio optimization—selling dealerships in South Carolina and St. Louis—and increasing its share repurchase authorization to $500 million, these strategic actions were insufficient to counter the broader macroeconomic headwinds that drove the price well below the bear floor.
- Thu5Feb
Actual outcome: Bull · $234.01 at outcome
ABG reported Q4 EPS of $6.67, narrowly missing the $6.70 estimate, though revenues rose year-over-year. Despite the fractional miss and reports of weaker gross profit in new vehicle sales, the stock rallied 6.1% immediately, driven by the strong sequential recovery from the depressed Q3 results. The positive reaction was sustained by market focus on strategic resilience, including margin expansion efforts from the Tekion technology rollout and robust parts & service profits, validating the long-term bull thesis.
